Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.

Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.

He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:

  • 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
  • 23-5 (82%) in 2021
  • 28-9 (76%) in 2020

Warren is 44-20 (69%) on sides and totals over the last seven weeks and 48-16 (75%) on elevated plays.

A $100 bettor would be up $7,716 based on Warren’s recommendations for the 2023 NFL season.

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Falcons vs. Bucs Week 14 Betting Preview & Recommendation

113 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over *SPLIT 1 unit*
113 Tampa Bay Buccaneers full game Over 39.5 -114 (FD, 40 is OK) 0.5 units

113 Tampa Bay Buccaneers first half Over 19.5 -116 (get no worse than 20) 0.5 units

This series has been an over series in Atlanta, going over the total in 6 of the last 7 games.

The first time these two teams played, there were seven trips to the red zone.

Only one trip resulted in a TD.

And no, there weren’t six red zone field goals, either.

In fact, Desmond Ridder fumbled the ball 3 times in the red zone:

  1. at the Bucs 11 yard-line
  2. at the Bucs 1-yard line
  3. at the Bucs 1-inch line

The Falcons also settled for a FG at the Bucs 5-yard line.

Baker Mayfield threw an interception at the Falcons 11-yard line.

And the Bucs settled for 2 field goals, one at the 6-yard line and one at the 18-yard line.

There still were 29 points scored, 10 short of the total this week, but the manner in which so few points were scored was embarrassing.

In that game, the Falcons started CBs A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah as well as DLs Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata.

Jarrett is out for the season while the other three are all on this week’s injury report with game availability TBD (all played last week but were injured).

In that game, the Bucs started CB Jamel Dean and LBs Lavonte David and Devin White. Dean and White haven’t played in a couple of weeks due to injury and aren’t practicing so far this week. David is likely back this week.

I believe the Falcons should have success with Bijan Robinson against the Bucs defense, both on the ground and through the air.

Since Week 5, the Bucs defense ranks as follows vs. RB-passes:

  • #29 in YPA allowed to RB targets (6.9 YPA)
  • #30 in completion rate allowed to RB targets (90% comp)
  • #31 in EPA/att allowed to RB targets (+0.21 EPA/att)

During that same span, vs. RB rushing attempts, they rank:

  • #10 in YPC (3.8 YPC)
  • #11 in EPA/rush allowed (-0.14 EPA/att)

The Bucs defense has struggled more against RB runs when you look at only the last few weeks on account of defensive injuries.

Therefore, I do expect more production on the ground to RBs than year-to-date stats imply.

But RB targets through the air should be utilized, particularly to Robinson.

The Bucs blitz on 38% of first downs (the #3 highest rate in the NFL, average is 27%) and at the #3 highest rate on all downs.

But when they blitz, they are allowing an NFL-high 8.4 YPA, in large part because they are surrendering 7.4 yards after the catch per reception, which is #2 most.

Specifically, by position targeted when they blitz, the Tampa defense allows RB targets to gain 8.3 YPA (#26 in NFL) with an 81% completion rate.

When blitzed, since Week 5 Ridder’s YPA based on position targeted:

  • RB targets: 13.1 YPA (#6 in NFL), +0.62 EPA/att (#9)
  • WR targets: 8.2 YPA (#20), -0.42 EPA/att (#48), 3 INTs thrown
  • TE targets: 7.2 YPA (#24), +0.61 EPA/att (#15)

When Ridder is being blitzed, the Falcons should have more RB target options for him and encourage him to target RBs on these blitzes rather than WRs.

On the other side of the ball, Rachaad White is going up against a Falcons defense that has been relatively stout against the run but has been terrible vs. RB passes.

Two weeks ago, White was on the injury report with a knee injury and wasn’t fully healthy.

Last week, he played the Panthers, a defense that ranks #2 vs. RB passes.

This week, White goes up against a Falcons defense that ranks #31 in EPA/att vs. RB passes, #26 in success rate, and #26 in YPA.

The Falcons have the #7 ranked run defense but are bottom-7 vs. RB passes.

When White met them in Week 7, he caught all 6 targets for 65 receiving yards.

But when trying to run the ball, he gained just 2.6 YPC, turning 13 rushes into only 34 yards.

Tampa Bay loves to run the ball on first down just to run the ball on first down.

But Atlanta’s first down run defense ranks:

  • #1 in EPA/rush (-0.23 EPA/att)
  • #7 in YPC (3.6)

The Bucs must limit their first down runs vs. the Falcons and instead stay ahead of schedule by passing the ball. And they must incorporate White into the game not as a 1st down rusher but as an every-down receiving option considering how terrible the Falcons are at defending these passes.

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