2025 College Football Win Totals: Big 12 Odds, Picks, Best Bets

The 2025 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best win total bets for the upcoming season.

In this series, I will take a look at win total bets for a few appealing teams in each of the four major conferences.

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2025 College Win Total Best Bet: Texas Tech Over 8.5 Wins

Texas Tech is trying to emerge as the new power in the Big 12, and falling below 8.5 wins would be a significant failure that could even lead to a coaching change.

In fact, anything less than 10 wins and a conference title would probably be considered a failure, unless injuries were a factor.

Billionaire donor and former Texas Tech offensive lineman Cody Campbell has poured money into the program, and the Red Raiders cleaned up in the transfer portal relative to everyone else in the Big 12. 

Starting quarterback Behren Morton returns, along with two of their three leading receivers from a season ago (Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin). 

The one concern that could hold back the Red Raiders is the offensive line.

Only center Sheridan Wilson and right guard Davion Carter return.

That said, left tackle Howard Sampson, a transfer from North Carolina, was one of the key portal additions this offseason. 

If that unit doesn’t gel together, things could go sideways.

However, offensive line coach Clay McGuire did a nice job with last year’s unit, which ranked 44th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed per Sports Info Solutions. 

2025 College Win Total Best Bet: UCF Under 5.5 Wins

This is a rebuilding situation for Scott Frost, who returns to the program he led to a 13-0 mark in 2017 before falling flat on his face at Nebraska. 

In addition to losing key players such as leading rusher RJ Harvey, Frost will also have to build a new identity for the team, as Gus Malzahn’s offense is among the more unique schemes in the college game. 

There have been two prior instances of Malzahn leaving a program where he had been for at least three years, both times producing losing seasons.

In 2012, Auburn went 3-9 after Malzahn had been its offensive coordinator the previous three years.

In 2021, Auburn went 6-7 after firing Malzahn as its head coach. 

The issue in moving on from Malzahn is the unique run game that excels at creating open lanes.

Even as UCF struggled last year, it still led the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact gained, per Sports Info Solutions. 

That run scheme, aided by the talent of Harvey, kept the offense afloat 一 and still only led to a 4-8 record. 

Frost hit the portal hard in an effort to flip the roster quickly, bringing in 41 transfers, the nation’s third-highest number. 

Three of those transfers were quarterbacks, which will create a contentious battle between Jacurri Brown, who started two games last year, and newcomers Cam Fancher (via FAU) and Tayven Jackson (via Indiana). 

Unless someone steps up and blows away the competition during camp, expect that situation to turn into a revolving door in what could be a chaotic year for the Knights. 

2025 College Win Total Best Bet: Baylor Over 7.5 Wins

Baylor returns 13 starters from last year’s 8-5 squad, including quarterback Sawyer Robertson and four offensive linemen. 

The returning talent on the offensive line should allow Baylor to maintain its efficient offense.

The unit ranked 19th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed a season ago, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

Head coach Dave Aranda is known for his defense, and while there were some struggles last year, a productive offseason should allow for growth. 

Devin Turner, a transfer from Northwestern, should be a stabilizing force at safety, while Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) will give a boost to the pass rush. 

Fobbs-White led Tulane with a 13.7% pressure rate a season ago. 

The schedule also falls in Baylor’s favor.

Several of the Bears’ toughest conference foes pay a visit to Waco (Arizona State, Utah, Kansas State). 

Best Bet: Kansas State Over 8.5 Wins

Kansas State was a mild disappointment last year, going 8-4 and missing out on a trip to the Big 12 title game after losing three of its last four games. 

It was also a year of adjustments, however, as Avery Johnson took over for Will Howard at quarterback and Conor Riley replaced Collin Klein as the offensive coordinator. 

The promotion of Riley was a questionable choice, and it backfired.

Riley had been head coach Chris Klieman’s offensive line coach dating back to their time together at North Dakota State, but he had never called plays. 

The combination of a young quarterback and rookie playcaller didn’t go well.

The Wildcats were held to fewer than 20 points three times 一 more than the previous two years combined. 

Matt Wells, former Utah State and Texas Tech head coach, takes over the offensive playcalling duties this season, which should help Johnson elevate his play. 

A favorable schedule should also help the Wildcats.

Kansas State plays two games against opponents who are coming off byes (Kansas, Oklahoma State), but the Wildcats are also returning from byes for those games.