Eagles vs Chiefs Prediction for Super Bowl 57:
The Eagles are predicted to win Super Bowl 57 game with a 56.52% implied probability based on current betting lines. However, the moneyline model predicts the Chiefs will win with 55% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Chiefs vs Eagles
Chiefs vs Eagles Game Overview
Sharp Football’s Rich Hribrar breaks down this Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl:
Two teams remain and we have no shortage of narratives surrounding this game. From Andy Reid facing his former team to the Kelce Bros. The on-field product features the two No. 1 Seeds in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2017 season.
This is the first time that the Chiefs are an underdog in the postseason with Patrick Mahomes under center.
It is just the ninth time that the Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes under center in what will be his 94th career start, which says something in of itself on how special this run for the Chiefs has been.
This may be surprising, but this is just the fourth Super Bowl with a point spread lower than three points since the NFL expanded to 32 teams back in 2002.
Unfortunately, tight spreads have not equaled tight outcomes. Three of those four games have been decided by 10 or more points.
Hopefully, this game can buck that small sample trend and stay close throughout because this point spread should be as tight as it is.
A lot has been questioned about the path that the Eagles have had to reach the Super Bowl.
They have faced more teams this season with a winning record (10-to-9) but the Chiefs have had 10 games versus 2022 playoff teams compared to eight for the Eagles.
The Chiefs also played in the tougher conference, but these teams have faced six common opponents this season and the Eagles have a +73 point differential in those games compared to a +67 point differential for the Chiefs.
Ironically, both of these teams struggled with the Colts the most among those common opponents, but the Eagles were 6-0 in those games while the Chiefs were 6-1 (they played the Jaguars twice).
The Eagles may not have needed to beat a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to reach this year’s game like the Chiefs, but they have done what good teams do to inferior opponents, which is dominate those games convincingly.
Philadelphia enters the Super Bowl with a league-high +188 point differential while the Chiefs are fourth (+137).
The Chiefs are first in the NFL in expected points added per play on offense (0.15) while the Eagles are second (0.07). These are the top two teams in plays that have gained 10 or more yards while the Chiefs lead the NFL in plays of 20 or more yards (88) while the Eagles are third (84).
The Super Bowl is notorious for starting slow given the pageantry surrounding the lead into the game.
This could be the Super Bowl to buck that trend and provide some early fireworks since we are getting two of the best early offenses in the NFL.
- The Chiefs lead the NFL in yards per play in the first half of games (6.7) while the Eagles are third (6.3).
- Philadelphia is tops in the league in points per drive in the first half (3.18) while the Chiefs are second (2.91).
- These are the only two teams in the league that have scored on over 50% of their first half possessions, with the Eagles at 52.9% and the Chiefs at 51.5%.
- League average is 38.8%.
There is a separation between these teams on the defensive side of season-long metrics, but this Kansas City defense has been red hot, something we will get into below. The Eagles are third in the NFL in EPA per play defensively this season (0.09) while the Chiefs are 18th (0.00).
» Read the full Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Worksheet
Eagles vs Chiefs Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:
|Chiefs||+1.5 -110||49.5 -110||+105|
|Eagles||-1.5 -110||49.5 -110||-125|
Chiefs Best Bets Against the Spread
- The Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 61% ROI)
Eagles Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Eagles have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Eagles have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Eagles have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Eagles have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+7.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 8-11 (-4.2 Units / -20% ROI).
- Chiefs are 16-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.35 Units / 14.71% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-11 when betting the Over for -4.1 Units / -19.62% ROI
- Chiefs are 11-8 when betting the Under for +2.2 Units / ROI
Eagles Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Eagles have gone 10-9 (+0.1 Units / 0.48% ROI).
- Eagles are 16-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 11.06% ROI
- Eagles are 10-9 when betting the Over for +0.1 Units / 0.48% ROI
- Eagles are 9-10 when betting the Under for -2 Units / -9.57% ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM’s Super Bowl game breakdown
Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl 57:
Sharp Football’s Ryan McCrystal likes the Over on Jalen Hurts’ total rushing yards and total passing TDs.
Given Hurts’ playmaking ability and the Chiefs’ tendency to allow yards on the ground to quarterbacks, this looks like a good opportunity to bet the over on Hurts rushing yards prop in the Super Bowl.
Another QB player prop to consider is the Over on Patrick Mahomes total interceptions.
Mahomes has thrown just one interception in his last six games, but the Eagles defense has a knack for getting its hands on the football and it’s worth taking the over on Mahomes’s interception prop in the Super Bowl.
First Touchdown Scorer Bet, Super Bowl
|PLAYER NAME||1ST TD ODDS|
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet, Super Bowl
|PLAYER NAME||ANYTIME TD ODDS|
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet for Chiefs vs Bengals:
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs QB) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in Super Bowl 57.
It is a possibility that Mahomes is the healthier of the two starting quarterbacks, as most reports have indicated that the ankle injury will be nearly resolved with two weeks of rest. Mahomes’ mobility may be overlooked as he limped off the field multiple times on Sunday. The Eagles defense ranks 31st in the league in yards before contact on quarterback runs and Mahomes had four rushing touchdowns in the regular season.
Devonta Smith (Eagles WR) is our pick pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in Super Bowl 57.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has superior numbers throwing to the left side of the field since the return from his shoulder injury. Smith leads all Eagles receivers in routes run on the left side of the field and has an advantage in red-zone targets over AJ Brown in the last six weeks.
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards, Super Bowl
|Isiah Pacheco||52.5 -115||52.5 -120|
|Jerick McKinnon||23.5 -110||23.5 -120|
|Jalen Hurts||48.5 -120||48.5 -110|
|Miles Sanders||57.5 -115||57.5 -115|
|Kenneth Gainwell||21.5 -120||21.5 -110|
Against an inconsistent Chiefs run defense, consider taking the over on Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop in Super Bowl XLII.
The Eagles’ defense appears to be a favorable matchup for the Chiefs’ run game, so take the over on Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop bet.
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards, Super Bowl
|Dallas Goedert||44.5 -120||44.5 -115|
|DeVonta Smith||61.5 -115||61.5 -120|
|Miles Sanders||4.5 -120||4.5 -110|
|Travis Kelce||76.5 -120||76.5 -110|
|Jerick McKinnon||22.5 -110||22.5 -120|
Based on the Chiefs’ overage tendencies, take the over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
Key Stats for the Chiefs heading into Super Bowl:
- The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 43% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
- The Chiefs defense has allowed 27 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
- The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — best in NFL
- The Chiefs have thrown for 41 TDs this season — most in NFL.
Key Stats for the Eagles heading into Super Bowl:
- The Eagles are 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since last season — 2nd-best in NFL.
- The Eagles have scored 40 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
- The Eagles have a third down conversion rate of 48.4% in the fourth quarter this season — second-best in NFL.
- The Eagles have thrown the ball 31% of the time (94 Pass Attempts/299 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — lowest in NFL
- The Eagles have rushed for 32 TDs this season — most in NFL.
|37.42%||2||Opp. Rush %||41.92%||12|
|62.58%||31||Opp. Pass %||58.08%||21|
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:
- Use coupon code SHARP25 for $25 off a Super Bowl Package.
Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
- Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
- 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)