Eagles at Cowboys (-4) (Monday Night Football)
If you’re an Eagles fan, you’re looking for reasons to believe in Jalen Hurts.
He gave you plenty in Week 1 against the Falcons but in Week 2 against the 49ers, his throwing regressed and he passed more like the quarterback who had four straight games with a sub-57% completion percentage to end 2020. His best path to victory in this game may be with his legs, as he rushed for 62 yards in Week 1 and 82 in Week 2.
The Eagles will be protecting Hurts a little differently. Right guard Brandon Brooks is out with a strained pectoral muscle and will be replaced by second-round pick Landon Dickerson.
Brooks ranked 10th in Blocking Points Earned per play in 2019 (he didn’t play in 2020). Dickerson has a good pedigree. He played collegiately at Alabama in 2020 where his blown block rate ranked third among SEC offensive linemen who played at least 300 snaps.
The Cowboys did not face a running quarterback in either Week 1 (Tom Brady) or Week 2 (Justin Herbert) and Hurts’s rushing may be the best way to pose a challenge for Cowboys rookie linebacker/defensive end Micah Parsons, who led all NFL players with eight pressures on 25 pass rushes while filling in for Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory in Week 2.
Throwing the ball against the Cowboys corners may be a challenge.
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As for Dak Prescott, his 23-of-27 in Sunday’s win sounds a little better than it actually was in terms of value. He ranked 25th, only one spot better than Hurts, in Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 2 (minimum 10 attempts) after ranking 11th in that stat in Week 1.
The Eagles’ defense may present the best hope for victory if it can keep the game low scoring.
It has allowed 4.6 yards per coverage snap, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. And the run defense has allowed a broken or missed tackle on only 4% of running attempts, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliott does not have a broken or missed tackle on his 27 rushes this season, though Tony Pollard has three on 16 rushes and is coming off a breakout game in Week 2.
But Philadelphia will be hindered by the absence of Brandon Graham, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles. When Graham was on the field in his Pro Bowl 2020 season, the Eagles defense allowed -3 EPA per 60 plays. When he was off the field, it allowed damage at the rate of 2.4 EPA per 60. The opposing offense’s bust percentage on pass plays was 19% with him on the field, 10% with him off it (bust percentage defined as the percentage of plays with a -1 EPA or worse).
