While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers while staying up to date on the latest odds.
276.5 Passing Yards: Over (-115) /Under (-115)
Career Games Over Hit%: 48.3%
Burrow has had some huge passing lines this season, posting the two highest passing yardage game of the year and three of the top seven games, but he has fallen below this total in more than half of his career games and during the 2021 season.
Just 7-of-20 passers have hit this total against the Rams this season while those passers needed 44.4 pass attempts per game in those games to get there.
Burrow has cleared this number in five of his past eight games as the Bengals have gotten more aggressive throwing the football, but we have seen him fall under this total in two of the three postseason games.
1.5 Touchdown Passes: Over (-160)/Under (+120)
Career Games Over Hit%: 58.6%
The over here does not carry a ton of value. Burrow threw multiple touchdown passes in 13 games this season. If looking to pry any juice from the under, the Rams allowed multiple touchdown passes in just five games this season. If looking at alternative lines for three or more touchdowns, no passer has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Rams this season.
0.5 Interceptions: Over (-130)/Under (-105)
Career Games Over Hit%: 55.2%
Burrow has thrown 16 interceptions this season with at least one interception in 11-of-19 games, including turning the ball over through the air in each of the past two postseason games. Burrow playing a clean game is one of the areas that can directly lead into the Bengals potentially pulling off the upset. Cincinnati is 7-1 in games in which Burrow did not throw an interception this season. If you are going to flirt with that under here, go ahead and dabble with the Cincinnati money line.
That said, the line reflects the career and 2021 rate of games in which Burrow has thrown a pick, while the Rams have an interception in 15-of-20 games this year, including at least one in each of their past eight games.
36.5 Passing Attempts: Over (-115)/Under (-110)
Career Games Over Hit%: 48.3%
Here is another line that Burrow has failed to hit at a 50% rate over his first two seasons and in 2021. Burrow has averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game, but we have seen the Bengals get more willing to thrown the ball aggressively as the season progressed. Burrow averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game through 11 games, with Burrow clearing this line in just three of those games.
Since that span, Burrow has averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game, throwing the ball 37 times or more in five of those games, including in four of his past five games played, throwing 46, 39, 34, 37, and 38 passes over those games.
Opponents have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Rams (tied for the third most with the Bengals), but they have faced 37 or more passes in just under half (nine) of their games this season and in just one of their past seven games.
As was the case with Stafford, no matter the track you are taking here, you do want to pair and correlate your bets together across the board.
In the eight games that Burrow has hit the over here in attempts, he also hit his current yardage line in seven of those eight games. In the other 11 games, he has hit that yardage line just twice.
24.5 Passing Completions: Over (-110)/Under (-120)
Career Games Over Hit%: 44.8%
2021 %: 36.8%
Burrow has cleared this line in just 7-of-19 games this season. Following suit with the notes above, four of those seven games have come over the final seven weeks of the season to give some added life here. Burrow has at least 24 pass completions in six of his past eight games, so this line is set right on par with that while the Rams are allowing 24.1 completions per game.
Again, while there may not be a ton of value here as a solo bet, pairing up your preference with the other props here can create a correlated parlay. In the eight games that Burrow hit his current line in pass attempts, he has hit this completion total in five of those games while hitting this completion total in just one of his 11 games falling below his current line in attempts.
38.5 yards Longest Pass Completion: Over (-120)/Under (-110)
Burrow has a pass completion of at least 39 yards in 12-of-19 games this season. His deep ball rate (12.2%) is a touch higher than Stafford’s (11.6%). The Rams are 19th in completion rate allowed on throws over 20 yards downfield (41.7%) but climb up to 11th on throws over 30 yards downfield (26.1%).
11.5 Rushing Yards: Over (-115)/Under (-110)
Career Games Over Hit%: 24.1%
Ryan McCrystal laid out for the under on Burrow’s longest rushing attempt while his total rushing yardage line is something he has hit in just 7-of-29 career games and just three times this season. One of those games was the AFC Championship when Burrow rushed for 25 yards, escaping on three different third down scrambles to extend drives.