While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
Here we are diving into what is available for Matthew Stafford.
279.5 Passing Yards: Over (-115) /Under (-115)
Career Games Over Hit%: 45.2%
In his first year with the Rams, Stafford has cleared this yardage total in 13-of-20 games. That includes each of the past two games in the postseason. 8-of-20 starting quarterbacks have hit this number against the Bengals while six of those eight passers needed 40 or more pass attempts to get there. If you are going to play the over here, pairing it with his pass attempt total is sound.
1.5 Touchdown Passes: Over (-225)/Under (+160)
Career Games Over Hit%: 57.4%
This is one where you are better looking for alternative lines as Stafford has destroyed this total on a regular basis with the Rams and that is factored in. Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 16-of-20 games, including five in a row and in nine of his past 10 games. The Bengals have allowed multiple touchdown passes to 50% of the starting quarterbacks they have faced this season, including four of the past six.
79.7% of the Rams touchdowns this season have come via passing, the highest rate in the league. They lead the league in passing rate inside of the 5-yard line (65.8%), while ranking second inside of the 10 (60.3%) and third inside of the red zone altogether at 60.5%. As a byproduct, Stafford has thrown three of more touchdowns in nine games this season, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (10), who did throw three last weekend against the Bengals.
0.5 Interceptions: Over (-140)/Under (+105)
Career Games Over Hit%: 56.4%
Stafford threw a league-high 17 interceptions during the regular season while his 2.8% interception rate was 13th among all passers with 100 or more pass attempts. After just four interceptions over his opening games this year (1.5% rate), Stafford has thrown 14 interceptions since (3.3%) with multiple interceptions in five of those games.
The Bengals came away with an interception in 13 games this season (third in the league), including a pick in each of their playoff games.
Despite the turnovers over the back half of the season, Stafford has thrown just one interception on 100 pass attempts in the playoffs.
If you are going to play for Stafford playing clean here, you will want to pair that with action on the Rams in the game. The Rams are 8-0 in games in which Stafford has not thrown an interception, winning seven of those games by seven or more points.
35.5 Passing Attempts: Over (-125)/Under (-105)
Career Games Over Hit%: 56.4%
Stafford’s 2021 rate of clearing this line was right in line with his career marks. It is also right on the button with his seasonal average (35.4 attempts per game). Cincinnati has faced 37.2 attempts per game, the third-most in the NFL this season.
If shopping in this lane, you may want to pair this line (in either direction) with Stafford’s yardage total. In the 13 games that Stafford cleared his yardage line, he averaged 37.5 attempts per game and cleared this attempt line in 69.2% of those games. In the seven games that he failed to hit his yardage total; Stafford averaged 30.6 passes per game with just two games among those clearing this attempt line.
24.5 Passing Completions: Over (+100)/Under (-130)
Career Games Over Hit%: 43.1%
This is another line set right near Stafford’s seasonal average (23.8 completions per game) and the what the Bengals have allowed per game (24.5), which was the third most completions allowed per game. Stafford has completed 28 and 31 passes the past two games,. Much like the line for pass attempts, you are going to want to correlate this bet, whichever direction you are going. In the 10 games that Stafford has cleared this line, he has also cleared his current pass attempt line in every single one of those games. In the 10 games in which Stafford fell short of this mark, he has averaged 29.9 pass attempts per games with just two of those games clearing his current line on attempts.
38.5 yards Longest Pass Completion: Over (-120)/Under (-110)
Stafford hit on a completion of 39 or more yards in 13-of-20 games this season. Stafford has the most pass attempts (38) and completions (17) of 30 or more air yards on the season. The Bengals are 24th in the league in completion rate allowed on those throws (37.1%) while allowing a completion of this length in 9-of-20 games (25th).
5.5 Rushing Yards: Over (-110)/Under (-120)
Career Games Over Hit%: 47.3%
Stafford cleared this line in 7-of-20 games this season and it has a sub-50% hit rate for his career, but Ryan McCrystal laid out a solid case why to take a bite on this line, needing only one play to get to the over based on the projected lack of blitzing the Bengals are going to do on Sunday.