Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
We have a couple of games behind us in the NFL, and it really reveals a lot about who teams are and will be until they decide to make mid-season changes.
Why would I say that? Coaches go into the offseason with promises of good change. They spend tons of time looking over things, personnel, video, and talking and meeting with other coaches.
They put a ton of time into that, and even if it absolutely sucks, they often will not change it until they have absolutely proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that their offseason scheming is not good.
For some, they simply try to slightly refine their inept ways. Thanks to Warren Sharp and the awesome video he posted this Thursday.
this Matt Canada situation is way worse than I initially expected
so I forced myself to write about it
yes, they played tough defenses
but it's not the results that are most concerning
it's the process
and it's worse than I thought
READ: https://t.co/TnxUuA6WE3
WATCH: pic.twitter.com/gXZ6UOhIYJ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 21, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Prediction:
Look for the Las Vegas Raiders to cover the spread as a home favorite of -3.
Why I like the Raiders to cover the spread vs. the Steelers in Week 3:
Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada is the main reason, among others, that the Las Vegas Raiders are one of my picks this week.
Warren pointed out just how bad the offense has been for the first two weeks. They are last in points per drive, last in points per game, 0.4 points per minute which is last, and they are last in gaining a first down in a drive and that leading to another first down.
Warren was also quick to point out the why, which is important.
The Steelers are the league worst in lining up in shotgun or under center and basically giving away what they do. When under center, for instance, the Steelers run the ball around 90% of the time. I wonder if other teams figure that out (sarcasm)?
Another example is they are at the bottom in using pre-snap motion.
So basically, the Steelers make it as simple as possible for defenses. They can focus on their keys more and get a half step towards the direction that they are predicting the play will go based on having a high pre-snap probability based on QB position and formation.
The butterfly effect is that the offense can’t stay on the field, and that puts what I believe could be a great defense in a terrible spot.
Offensively, Jimmy Garoppolo ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Those of you who have read my column know how important I believe that is.
Kenny Pickett is in the bottom third.
While George Pickens is in top three in the league in yards above expected when he does catch the ball, their limited offense doesn’t provide him with nearly enough opportunities based on what is mentioned above.
On the other hand, Davante Adams, who may be the most talented receiver in the league, is due for a breakout game. He has 17 targets in his first two games. With Jakobi Meyers coming back to take some of the defensive focus off of him, I could see him improving his yards after catch and keeping his targets the same or even improving some.
Every game should be another that Garoppolo gets more comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ offense.
I love Mike Tomlin as a coach, but he has chosen so poorly when it comes to the last two offensive coordinators. Randy Fichtner just did not fit with Ben Roethlisberger, and I’m not sure Canada fits with anyone right now.
Finally, while the Raiders are No. 6 in block win rate, the Steelers can’t crack the top 20. Offensive lines are needed to win games, and right now, the Raiders' is better.
Raiders win this in their first game at home this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys Spread Prediction:
