As Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season approaches, two intriguing player prop bets stand out, highlighting the contrasting challenges faced by C.J. Stroud and Bijan Robinson.
Stroud finds himself up against an elite Detroit Lions pass rush, potentially leading to increased scrambling and rushing attempts.
Meanwhile, Robinson looks poised to exploit the New Orleans Saints' porous defense.
These matchups present opportunities for bettors to capitalize on the strengths and weaknesses of these young stars and their opponents.
Week 10 Prediction: C.J. Stroud Over 3.5 rush attempts (+130)
This is an attractive wager for bettors looking to capitalize on recent trends and matchup dynamics.
The Texans quarterback has faced escalating pressure in recent weeks, with pressure rates climbing from 52% in Week 7 to a staggering 56% in Week 9. This increasing pressure has forced Stroud to scramble more frequently to evade defenders, a trend likely to continue against the Lions' pass rush.
Detroit's defense ranks 10th in the NFL with a 37% pressure rate, maintaining a strong presence over the past three weeks even without star defender Aidan Hutchinson.
The Lions' recent acquisition of Za'Darius Smith at the trade deadline further bolsters their pass rush.
Smith, who ranks 21st among defensive linemen in pressure rate on pass rush snaps, adds another significant threat to Houston's already struggling offensive line.
As a quarterback behind a vulnerable offensive line (second-most sacked quarterback in the league) facing consistent pressure, Stroud is likely to rely more on his mobility to extend plays and avoid sacks, if possible.
This could lead to more designed runs or scrambles to keep the defense honest.
Stroud is currently averaging 3.44 rush attempts per game this season, but given the increased pressure he's facing and the Lions' strong pass rush, it's reasonable to expect him to exceed his average and surpass the 3.5 attempt threshold.
The combination of Houston's offensive line struggles, Detroit's robust pass rush, and Stroud's need to adapt to pressure all point towards an increased likelihood of the young quarterback using his legs more frequently.
With positive odds at +130, this prop bet presents an appealing risk-reward proposition for those looking to capitalize on Stroud's potential rushing attempts in this challenging matchup.
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Week 10 Prediction: Bijan Robinson OVER 79.5 rushing yards (+105)
Robinson has been a consistent force in the Falcons' ground game this season, accumulating 632 rushing yards over 9 games for an impressive average of 70.2 yards per game.
This baseline performance already puts him within striking distance of the 79.5-yard mark, and the matchup against the Saints presents a particularly favorable opportunity to exceed it.
New Orleans has struggled against the run this season, as evidenced by several opposing running backs having big days against them.
Javonte Williams of the Broncos rushed for 88 yards in Week 7, the Bucs’ Sean Tucker gashed them for 136 yards in Week 6, and the Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt got them for 102 yards before that.
These performances clearly point to a vulnerability in the Saints' run defense that Robinson, with his talent and the Falcons' run-heavy approach, is well-positioned to exploit.
The return of right tackle Kaleb McGary to the lineup a few weeks back has been a significant boost for the Falcons' running game.
McGary, who missed Week 4 due to a knee injury, strengthens the right side of the offensive line, which is crucial for the Falcons' run-heavy approach and should provide better blocking and create more opportunities for Robinson to break big runs.
In their previous matchup this season (Week 4), Robinson had a relatively quiet game with only 28 rushing yards on just 7 carries, compensating with 46 receiving yards. McGary was not present.
The Falcons are likely to adjust their game plan to get their star running back more involved in the ground game this time around.
Given Robinson's talent, the Falcons' run-first philosophy, the Saints' struggles against the run, and the return of McGary to bolster the offensive line, betting on Robinson to go over 79.5 rushing yards appears to be a solid wager for this divisional clash.
