In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop
If the sportsbooks are willing to post a line this week, take the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush against the Miami Dolphins.
Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the over at 19.5 or lower
Chubb has broken off a run of at least 20 yards in 11 of his last 12 games 一 and, when available, the prop has been listed no higher than 19.5 yards.
Unfortunately in the Browns’ last game on Monday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals, none of the major sportsbooks made this prop available, so perhaps we’ll miss out again.
This is not a particularly strong matchup for Chubb, as the Dolphins allow three or more yards before contact to running backs at the league’s second-lowest rate (16%), per TruMedia.
However, over the past two seasons, Chubb has a league-high six carries of 20 or more yards when contacted within two yards of the line of scrimmage.
Chubb’s production has been so consistent that we should consider him matchup-proof.
Consider the under on David Njoku’s receptions prop
David Njoku’s use is heavily dependent on the defense and the Dolphins look like a bad matchup 一 take the under on Njoku’s receptions prop this week.
David Njoku’s receptions prop, current line:
- Take the under at 4.5 or high
I recommended the under on Njoku’s receptions a few weeks ago against the Patriots (it was a winner) and the same logic applies in this matchup.
According to TruMedia, Njoku leads the Browns with a 22% target share versus two-high coverage schemes. Against single-high coverages, however, he’s the third option with a 16% target share.
Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer 一 a longtime Patriots assistant 一 relies on single-high coverage at the league’s highest rate, recently supplanting New England atop that leaderboard, per TruMedia.
Consider the over on Saquon Barkley’s longest rush prop
Against a pitiful Houston Texans run defense, take the over on Saquon Barkley’s longest rush.
Saquon Barkley’s longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the over at 18.5 or lower
The Texans’ defense has been surrendering long run plays at a high rate this season, and that trend should continue against the New York Giants.
Take a look at the longest rush by the primary ball carrier against Houston this season:
- Miles Sanders: 25 yards
- Derrick Henry: 41 yards
- Josh Jacobs: 15 yards
- Travis Etienne: 30 yards
- Austin Ekeler: 20 yards
- Khalil Herbert: 52 yards
- Javonte Williams: 17 yards
- Jonathan Taylor: 17 yards
Houston is allowing long run plays at a high rate due to its inability to create early contact.
The Texans are allowing running backs to gain three or more yards before contact on 31% of their carries, the worst rate in the league, per TruMedia.
And when Houston does allow three or more yards before contact, 15% of those plays produce at least 15 yards.
When Barkley is given at least three yards before contact, he gains 15 or more yards on 18% of his carries.
New York is favored by 6.5 points in this matchup, so we should expect a strong workload for Barkley, increasing his opportunities to break off a long run.
Consider the under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop
The under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards has been a winner in six of eight games 一 bet on that trend to continue and take the under against the San Francisco 49ers.
Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop, current lint
- Take the under at 50.5 or higher
The 49ers have contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 48% of their carries, the ninth-highest rate, per TruMedia. They’ve also been remarkably consistent, with that rate dipping below 40% in only one game (against Kansas City).
The Chargers’ offense likely won’t do Ekeler any favors, as their scheme tends to allow defenses to stack the box.
According to TruMedia, Ekeler has run into a stacked box on 71% of his attempts.
With a stacked box, San Francisco is allowing just 3.1 yards per attempt to running backs 一 only the Minnesota Vikings defense has been better.
The game script could work in our favor on this prop as well, with the 49ers favored by seven points. When trailing, the Chargers hand the ball off to a running back on 36% of plays, the league’s ninth-lowest rate.
Consider the over on Josh Allen’s longest rush
Josh Allen is being evaluated for an elbow injury, putting his status in doubt this week, but if he suits up, take the over on his longest rush against the Minnesota Vikings.
Josh Allen’s longest rush prop, current lint
- Take the over at 14.5 yards or lower
Allen has 15 rush attempts of at least 15 yards this season 一 10 designed runs and five scrambles, per TruMedia.
On designed runs, Allen has picked up at least one 15-yard gain in seven of eight games.
On scrambles, Allen has gained 15 or more yards five times (in four of eight games) 一 but this is the area that makes the prop particularly enticing this week.
According to TruMedia, opposing quarterbacks have scrambled on 6.8% of dropbacks against the Vikings, the second highest rate in the league.
Additionally, based on their scramble rate versus other teams, quarterbacks scramble 19% more often than expected against the Vikings.
This prop was available at 14.5 yards last week, if it’s available at that number again, we should bet on Allen hitting the over.
