For Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, two players stand out as particularly intriguing prospects: Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith–Njigba.
Jones, a veteran with a proven track record, faces a favorable matchup against a struggling run defense while Smith-Njigba, the talented young receiver, continues to carve out his role in Seattle's pass-heavy offense.
Both players present opportunities for prop bettors, with their potential performances shaped by recent trends, matchup advantages, and evolving team strategies.
Week 12 Prediction: Aaron Jones Over 60.5 rushing yards
The Vikings' recent shift towards a more balanced offensive approach bodes well for Jones' workload.
This strategic adjustment, coupled with the Bears' struggling run defense, creates a perfect storm for a productive day on the ground for the veteran back in a bounce-back spot.
Chicago's run defense has been a weakness throughout the season, ranking 23rd in the league and allowing an average of 130 rushing yards per game. They have surrendered 4.9 yards per carry to running backs, 28th in the league.
In back-to-back contests, they allowed leading backs to rush at least 74 yards between the Packers' Josh Jacobs and Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson
Jones’ vision, agility, and the Vikings' commitment to the run game, combined with Chicago's recent downward trend in defending the run well, make the over on this prop bet an enticing option.
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Week 12 Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 56.5 receiving yards
The Seahawks have a secret weapon that's primed to exploit a significant vulnerability in the Cardinals defense.
Jaxon Smith–Njigba has emerged as a force to be reckoned with, posting back-to-back 100-yard games and becoming a reliable target for quarterback Geno Smith.
While Arizona has done an admirable job containing outside receivers, they've struggled mightily against slot receivers and interior threats.
The Cardinals' defense has been particularly susceptible to slot receivers, allowing an average of 5.1 catches per game (ranking 26th in the league) and 8.5 yards per target (23rd) to these inside threats.
This weakness plays directly into the hands of Smith-Njigba, who has shown his ability to dominate from the slot.
His crucial role in the recent game-winning drive against the 49ers, where he caught four passes for 39 yards, demonstrates his potential to be a game-changer.
As the Seahawks return to the friendly confines of Lumen Field, the roar of the 12th Man will only amplify their advantages.
The Seahawks have an opportunity to continue their upward trajectory, leveraging their recent successes and strategic adjustments to overcome the Cardinals' winning streak.
