The stage is set for a royal performance as Derrick Henry prepares to face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
Now donning the purple and black of the Baltimore Ravens, Henry is poised for a breakout game against a Cowboys defense that has shown significant vulnerabilities against the run.
Week 3 Prediction: Derrick Henry OVER 66.5 rushing yards
Through two weeks, it is difficult to determine which is a better player option to back in the prop market: Derrick Henry or Lamar Jackson. I’m opting for Henry.
He showed significant improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, increasing his rushing yards from 46 to 84 and his yards per carry from 3.5 to 4.7.
This upward trend suggests he’s getting more comfortable in the Ravens’ offense.
Last week, Henry broke off a 29-yard run, demonstrating he still has the potential for explosive plays. This big-play ability could help him reach his over more easily.
His increase in workload, from 13 to 18 carries, also indicates that the Ravens are becoming more comfortable giving him a larger role in the offense.
Dallas’ interior defensive line has been one of the worst in the league through the first two weeks. Due to injury and a lack of depth, this weakness could be exploited by a power runner like Henry.
Dallas has allowed an average of 141.5 rushing yards per game, 20th in the league, a weakness that was on full display in Week 2, allowing 190 rushing yards to the Saints.
Derrick Henry rushing ladder:
- 97+ (+230)
- 107+ (+315)
- 117+ (+440)
- 127+ (+630)
It’s not atypical for the Cowboys to give up big rushing performances.
Last year, the Cowboys allowed Bills’ RB James Cook 179 rushing yards for 7.2 yards per carry on 25 attempts. It’s not a far-fetched thought for the Ravens to have similar success as a run-dominant offense.
Last week, Saints RB Alvin Kamara rushed for 115 yards against the Cowboys, and while Kamara and Henry have different styles, they are both powerful runners.
This rushing prop ladder offers excellent value given the matchup against the Cowboys’ vulnerable run defense.
The Ravens’ commitment to the run game, ranking 4th in total rushing yards, further supports Henry’s potential for a high-yardage performance.
Week 3 Longshot Prediction: Derrick Henry to score 2+ touchdowns (+350)
Henry’s proven goal-line prowess is evident in his career stats, with 92 rushing touchdowns over 121 games.
His recent form is also promising, having scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first two games this season.
Last year, Dallas was 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed. That trend has carried over into this season. They currently sit 27th, allowing five rushing scores in two games, all from inside the red zone.
With the Cowboys’ run defense battling through injury and exposed last week, the stage is set for Henry to punch in multiple scores, making at least two touchdowns a realistic proposition.
Even with Lamar Jackson there to complement the run game, the King may very well be ready to remind the NFL why he’s been one of the most feared runners in the league.
