While we are still nearly two weeks away from Super Bowl 58, sportsbooks have put out several player props for the big game.

Here are a few early props that caught my eye.

Check back next week for more player props on each team, including a few longshots.

Consider the under on Isiah Pacheco’s longest reception prop

There’s a strong trend for the under here, so let’s play the under on Isiah Pacheco’s longest reception prop.

Isaiah Pacheco’s longest reception prop, current line:

Including the postseason, Isiah Pacheco has just six receptions of 11 yards or longer.

From the Chiefs’ perspective, there’s no reason to expect increased usage due to their personnel 一 everyone who might affect Pacheco’s usage is healthy. So we would need to see a strong trend with the 49ers defense to bet the over.

However, the 49ers pass defense against running backs rates around league average by most meaningful metrics.

Most notably, opponents target running backs 19.6% of the time against San Francisco, including the postseason, while the league average is similar at 18.6%.

According to TruMedia, the 49ers allow 10 or more yards to running backs on 25% of receptions, narrowly above the league average of 24%.

Based on these numbers, there’s no reason to expect an outlier performance from Pacheco.

Don’t miss out on our Super Bowl recommendations

As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations:

Hurry! This sale ends soon, AND EVEN SOONER we’ll be releasing written game previews, Super Bowl bets, and props.

This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot late in the season:

  • Final 11 weeks in NFL: 58-32 (64%)
  • Final 2023 Profits: $100 Bettors finished up $8,148
  • Final 2023 Elevated Plays Record: 102-64 (61%)
  • Final 2023 1+ Unit Plays Record: 27-11 (71%)
  • Final 2023 NFL Regular Season: 83-56 (59%)
  • Final 2023 NFL Computer Totals: 38-23 (62%)
  • Final 2023 NCAAF Bowls: 9-1 (90%)

Historically, we’ve been outstanding in the Super Bowl:

  • 26-10 (72%) lifetime Super Bowl Sides/Totals record
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Consider the over on Christian McCaffrey’s longest rush prop

Against a friendly Chiefs run defense, take the over on Christian McCaffrey’s longest rush.

Christian McCaffrey’s longest rush, current line:

Christian McCaffrey has topped this number in 11 of 18 games this year, indicating an already strong trend towards the over without even factoring in the defense. 

The Kansas City defense should also boost our confidence in McCaffrey, as the Chiefs contact running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 37% of attempts, the league’s second-lowest rate per TruMedia. 

When McCaffrey is allowed to cross the line of scrimmage without contact, he averages 8.1 yards per attempt and gains at least 15 yards on 12% of his carries, the NFL’s third-highest rate.

Consider the under on Brock Purdy’s longest rush prop

This line feels like an overreaction to the NFC Championship Game, so let’s take the under on Brock Purdy’s longest rush.

Brock Purdy’s longest rush, current line:

Brock Purdy is an effective runner when he chooses to take off running. According to TruMeda, he averages 9.1 yards per scramble this year, playoffs included, the league’s second-highest rate behind only Kyler Murray.

However, Purdy averages just 1.2 scrambles per game and takes off running on just 3.9% of his dropbacks, below the league average of 5.0%.

Despite his success on the ground, Purdy has a rush of nine yards or longer in just six of 18 games this season.

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