Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Broncos Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Broncos win this season?
The Broncos are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Broncos Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Russell Wilson is the opposite of Teddy Bridgewater in terms of aggression. Wilson averaged nearly two more yards per attempt than Bridgewater and attempts passes over 20 yards a third more often.
The passing offense is likely to improve on the eighth-lowest success rate in 2022 in addition to an increase in explosive plays with Wilson. The Broncos are also benefactors of the easiest strength of schedule of opposing pass defenses which will work in Wilson’s favor.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The defense finished the season with 76.1 adjusted games lost, the third-highest in the league and more than double the previous season. Decimated by injuries and the loss of Von Miller allowed the fifth-highest success rate on run plays in 2021 will benefit from better injury luck in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
Playing in the division with arguably the strongest quarterbacks, the Broncos have an ascending secondary. Top ten pick Patrick Surtain II had an impressive rookie season ranking in the top half of the league in adjusted yards per coverage snap and will likely continue his assentation as one of the league’s top corners.
The addition of K’Wuan Williams helps bolster the group of corners which allowed the fourth-lowest completion percentage in 2021.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Broncos Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Starting the season with a new head coach, offensive and defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback will be a difficult task. The potential for the entire team to take a few weeks to develop chemistry and on-field cohesiveness exists. The defense also runs the risk of taking a step backward with the loss of Vic Fangio.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Broncos have the sixth-largest increase in the difficulty of schedule from last year. Although only the 16th-most difficult schedule of opponents, it is a step up from last year when the Broncos had the fourth-easiest strength of schedule.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The hype that the Broncos were a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender may have been overstated. The AFC is loaded with elite rosters and arguably better quarterbacks than a 33-year-old less mobile Russell Wilson.
The offensive line is average, finishing in the middle of the league in both Pass and Run Block Win rate, and the defensive line also has concerns. The Broncos play in a difficult division and conference. Upgrading the quarterback does not necessarily automatically translate to wins as good football teams in the AFC will lose games.
Denver Broncos Strength of Schedule:
The Broncos are ranked #17 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a fairly average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.