Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Chiefs Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Chiefs win this season?
The Chiefs are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Chiefs Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Although the offense is not better without Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are still a formidable tandem.
The 2021 Chiefs finished first in passing success rate, second in rushing success rate, and second in EPA/play.
Over the past four seasons without Hill on the field, Mahomes has averaged 0.19 EPA/DB and the Chiefs added three additional receivers to the offense this offseason.
The offense did not take a step forward this offseason, but it also didn’t take as large of a step back as perceived.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The offensive line was stellar in 2021, ranking second in Pass Block Win Rate and eighth in adjusted line yards.
The line will benefit from returning all five starters in 2022 and is likely to continue to be a top-5 unit in the league.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Chiefs’ front office did an admirable job of spreading out resources to the entire team following the Hill trade.
Mahomes’s cap hit is $28 million higher than 2021 and the team managed to improve the defense substantially and provide receiving options for the offense.
The Chiefs will remain one of the best teams in the league in 2022.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Chiefs Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Kansas City Chiefs play the hardest strength of schedule in 2022.
The Chiefs’ opening eight games are all against teams that finished the 2021 season with a winning record.
In addition to the improvement of every team in the division, the Chiefs play
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The 2021 Kansas City Chiefs lost the least number of games to injury, second-healthies on offense and third-healthiest on defense, per Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost.
Included in this injury luck is the fact that four offensive line members played almost every snap.
The Chiefs are no doubt going to regress in terms of injury luck in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Chiefs made a difficult decision to play the long game in terms of roster management as Mahomes is no longer on a rookie deal and salary allocation and planning becomes more difficult.
KC have not gone all in this year and have not restructured Mahomes’s contract which could push $22 million into future years.
While not leveraging future years, the Chiefs lost a star wide receiver as part of salary cap mgmt.
Chiefs Strength of Schedule:
The Chiefs are ranked #32 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the hardest schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.