Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Dolphins Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Dolphins win this season?
The Dolphins are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Dolphins Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Financial flexibility with a quarterback on a rookie contract and the seventh lowest dead cap allocation allowed the front office to aggressively pursue impact players via free agency and trade. The Dolphins significantly improved the roster with veteran additions on both sides of the ball, without losing any significant players.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Mike McDaniel’s 49ers offense led the league in yards per play and an upgrade in playcalling is expected over the co-coordinator tandem in 2021. The offense should improve upon the fourth worst 4.78 yards per play as Miami has elite athletes at all three skilled positions and a quarterback that ranked eighth in on target percentage in 2021.
Now three years removed from hip surgery combined with a fresh start from a new head coach, Tua Tagovailoa has all the pieces in place to take a third-year quarterback leap.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
After allowing the most quarterback pressures in 2022, the Dolphins invested heavily on the offense line. A new offensive scheme and upgraded blocking are likely to improve rushing and passing success on an offense that ranked below league average in most statistical categories in 2021.
» Bet the Dolphins Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Dolphins Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Dolphins’ travel and strength of schedule are more arduous than last year. The Dolphins play the 13th most difficult strength of opponents compared to the sixth-easiest last year. An extra road game and three consecutive which include visits to the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills in the second half of the season add to the difficulty.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Miami’s defensive unit was above average in terms of DVOA and success rate, however, the offensive efficiency of opponents was fifth-easiest and is slated to be the eighth-most difficult in 2022.
The defense was fortunate in terms of injury luck having a league-low 8.7 adjusted games lost, four times lower than the league median. Given the context of defensive continuity and opponents the Dolphins' defense is at risk of regression.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The 2021 offensive line struggled all year and finished last in pass block win rate. Although dramatically improved with free agent additions Terron Armstead and Connor Williams are both players who have concerns. Armstead will be 31 years old when the season starts and has missed 4.75 games/year over his last eight seasons and Williams led all offensive linemen in penalties last year.
» Bet the Dolphins Win Total Under
Miami Dolphins Strength of Schedule:
The Dolphins are ranked #19 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a harder than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
