Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Jaguars Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Jaguars win this season?
The Jaguars are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Jaguars Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Not only did the Jaguars finish with the worst turnover margin, the next closest was seven turnovers behind. Improvement can be expected in both fumble and interception margin.
The Jaguars’ offense and defense were unfortunate in recoveries as the Jaguars finished with a league-worst -6.75 fumbles recovered over expectation. Trevor Lawrence can be expected to improve on his league-high 17 interceptions in his second year.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Improvement in injury luck combined with a softer schedule should benefit the Jaguars as the offense had the fifth-highest adjusted games lost due to injury. Forecasted to play the 12th-easiest schedule the Jaguars have the fifth-largest improvement in strength of schedule.
The offense should be the biggest benefactor as the defensive efficiency of opponents is second easiest after facing the fourth-most difficult.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Jaguars outgained opponents on first downs in the first half of games by a substantial margin averaging 6.07 yards per play while allowing 5.37 yards. Trevor Lawrence on first downs in the opening half completed 73.5% of passes with a 0.14 EPA/DB top 10 in the league and gives reason to believe this offense will improve on its league-low 14.9 points/game.
» Bet the Jaguars Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Jaguars Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The schedule makers did not help the Jaguars in terms of rest differential as they play two games with more rest than the opponent and four games with less rest. The Jaguars play four games against opponents that play the Thursday night game the week prior. Not included in the rest differential is a game following a trip to Wembley.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The front office went on a spending spree in the offseason, acquiring several roster pieces on both sides of the ball. Despite spending over $300 million in free agency the roster is still lacking elite talent and depth. The Jaguars also took a risk with the first overall pick selecting a pass rusher with 9.5 career college sacks.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Jaguars’ defense allowed the second-highest completion percentage and EPA/DB, and fifth-highest 7.14 net yards per pass attempt against a below average passing strength of schedule in 2021.
The Jaguars struggled to stop the pass last year and the main addition to the roster Darious Williams struggled last year allowing a 63% completion rate and 1.1 yards/coverage snap.
» Bet the Jaguars Win Total Under
Jacksonville Jaguars Strength of Schedule:
The Jaguars are ranked #12 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them an easier than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
