Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Jets Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Jets win this season?
The Jets are predicted to win 5.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Jets Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The 2021 Jets struggled with injuries on both sides of the ball which led to the second-highest adjusted games lost due to injury.
The offense had the seventh-highest adjusted games lost and the defense had the most. Both units are due for better injury luck in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
In 2021, the Jets finished with -4.5 net field goals below expectation the third-lowest in the league. The second-worst turnover differential is likely to improve as the Jets had the second-worst fumble luck finishing with -5.1 fumble over expectation.
The Jets were on the wrong side of luck variance in 2021 which is due for positive regression in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The draft was a huge success for the future of the Jets. Although the Jets had the most draft capital, they were able to fill premium positions for fair value.
Sauce Gardner has the potential to be the best player in the draft, Garrett Wilson becomes the second starting wide receiver on a rookie contract, and Jermaine Johnson fills a need on the defensive line.
The Jets are building a very solid core of players at premium positions.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Jets Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Despite playing the fourth-place schedule, the Jets play the sixth-hardest schedule of opponents.
The Jets also have the third-worst net rest advantage having to play four teams with mini byes that play Thursday the week before playing the Jets.
The Jets also have a scheduling quirk of having to play the entire AFC North in the first four weeks.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Jets improved the overall roster yet the success of the team hinges on last year’s second overall pick Zach Wilson.
To say Wilson struggled is an understatement as he finished the season ranked last in most passing metrics with a -9.5 CPOE, -0.15 EPA/play, and 55.6% completion rate.
The season doesn’t start easy for Wilson and he is projected to face the third most difficult pass defenses in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The defense was not good against the pass or run last year. The defense finished last in EPA/play, EPA/DB, and bottom 10 in EPA/rush.
The Jets will have the best chance of winning games that allow them to run the ball and for that to happen the defense will need to play well early in games, which might be a tough ask.
New York Jets Strength of Schedule:
The Jets are ranked #27 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 6th hardest schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.