Get the latest Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2023 NFL season.
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Who is most likely to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Bijan Robinson is the current favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +350 odds. He is followed by Bryce Young (+500), C.J. Stroud (+650), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+700), Jahmyr Gibbs (+900), and Anthony Richardson (+900).
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Trends
- While MVP is almost always a quarterback, the Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a wide receiver or running back in seven of the last 10 seasons
- Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase won the award in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
- Each of the last five winners was selected in the top 10.
- Seven of the last 10 winners were selected in the first round.
Favorite to win the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Bijan Robinson (+350)
Robinson is the favorite for good reason. As mentioned above, this award has favored position players over quarterbacks during the last decade, and Robinson appears to be headed into a workhorse role.
The Falcons finished first in the league with 559 rushing attempts last season, and they were 13.7% under their expected pass rate. After spending the No. 8 overall pick on a running back, there is no reason to expect that game plan to change.
While there is backfield competition from Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, that draft capital also means the Falcons have incentive to use Robinson early and often.
Finally, the Falcons’ running game was one of the most efficient in the league last season, and they had that success without a talent like Robinson in the backfield.
Looking at the landing spot and likely usage, Robinson should be in for a massive rookie season if he stays healthy.
Sleeper Bet to win the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jordan Addison (+1600)
Of the four receivers taken in a row during the first round, Addison lands in the spot with the cleanest path to targets.
The Vikings threw the ball 672 times last season, the third-most attempts in the league. Game script drove some of that volume, but the Vikings were still ninth in the league in neutral pass rate (56%) and fifth in situation-neutral pace.
Even if they are in fewer shootouts this season, the Vikings are likely to have a high-volume passing attack.
While he was not good last season, Adam Thielen still drew 107 targets that are now vacant after he moved on to the Panthers. K.J. Osborn will offer some competition for the No. 2 spot, but he has yet to prove he is more than a tertiary option in the passing game.
Addison is not going to out-target Justin Jefferson, and there is a decent chance he finishes behind T.J. Hockenson as well.
Even so, he has a path to 100 targets in a solid passing game even without any injuries ahead of him.
When should you bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
If you are betting on Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way you will keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.
When placing a future bet like the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, an important concept to understand is the time value of money, the concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.
Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year bet will not be graded until February 2024, tying up funds wagered for nine months.
Does this concept mean no Offensive Rookie of the Year bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes. Also, the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.