The playoff picture has mostly taken shape. As we enter Week 18, there are still some playoff spots to be decided so we’re here to show the playoff implications of each game and how the betting market has adjusted to the likely effort level of each team in the season finale.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Saturday 4:30pm ET
lookahead line: Chiefs -3, current line: Chiefs -10
The Chiefs can still clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Titans loss or tie against the Texans.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Chiefs a 20% chance at the bye.
Denver has been eliminated from the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday, 8:15pm ET
lookahead line: Cowboys -3.5, current line: Cowboys -7
Both teams have clinched a playoff berth. There is seeding on the line, but the Cowboys are most likely to finish as the No. 4 seed. The Eagles have clinched a wild card berth, have talked about resting starters, and just placed a number of players on the COVID reserve list at the start of the week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Browns -1.5, current line: Bengals -2.5
Cincinnati has clinched the AFC North. The Bengals can still finish as the No. 1 seed with a win and losses from the Chiefs, Titans, and Patriots OR losses from the Chiefs and Titans plus a win from the Bills. Baker Mayfield does not seem likely to play in the Week 18 finale, which may or may not increase Cincinnati’s chance to win.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Bengals a 4% chance at a first-round bye.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Packers -11, current line: Packers -3
The Packers have already clinched the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Detroit currently holds the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, a half-game behind Jacksonville. With a loss and Jaguars win, the Lions would pick first.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Vikings -3, current line: Vikings -2.5
Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Washington -4, current line: Washington -6.5
Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and the Giants will be starting Jake Fromm. Washington enters the week with the ninth overall pick and the Giants have the fifth and the Bears’ pick, currently eighth.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Ravens -6.5, current line: Ravens -4.5
The Steelers make the playoffs with a win, plus a Colts loss to the Jaguars and a winner in the Chagers-Raiders game (not a tie). The Ravens make the playoffs with a win, a Colts loss to the Jaguars, a Chargers loss to the Raiders, and a Dolphins loss to the Patriots.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Steelers a 5% chance to make the playoffs and the Ravens a 2% chance — just slightly lower odds than Ben Roethlisberger completing a pass 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1pm ET
lookahead line: Colts -8.5, current line: Colts -15.5
Indianapolis clinches a playoff berth with a win. But they can also get in with a loss from the Raiders OR if the Chargers, Patriots, and Steelers all lose OR if the Raiders lose and Steelers and Ravens tie. The Jaguars lock up the No. 1 overall pick with a loss.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1pm ET
lookahead line: Titans -10, current line: Titans -11
Currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Titans clinch a first-round bye with a win. There are multiple scenarios that would give them a bye with a loss, most of which involve a Chiefs loss, a result that would be known on Saturday.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Titans a 76% chance to finish as the top seed in the AFC.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Saints -3.5, current line: Saints -4.5
The Saints make the playoffs with a win and a 49ers loss to the Rams, as Los Angeles will be playing to win the division. FiveThirtyEight gives New Orleans a 38% chance to make the playoffs.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Bills -17, current line: Bills -17
Buffalo will clinch the AFC East with a win or a Patriots loss to the Dolphins. The Bills will also clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and Chiefs loss, a result that will be known on Saturday, and a Bengals loss. The Upshot has the Bills most likely to finish as the No, 3 seed in the AFC at 42%.
The Jets currently have the fourth overall pick in the draft, tied with the Texans and Giants at 4-12. They also have the Seahawks’ first-round pick, currently seventh.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Rams -6.5, current line: Rams -5
The Rams win the NFC West win a win or a Cardinals loss/tie to the Seahawks. Los Angeles has a 61% chance to finish as the No. 2 seed, per The Upshot, with a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. The 49ers make the playoffs with a win or a Saints loss.
FiveThirtyEight gives the 49ers a 62% chance to make the playoffs.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Patriots -2.5, current line: Patriots -6.5
New England is most likely to finish as the No. 5 seed (57% chance per The Upshot) but still has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots would get the bye with a win and losses from the Chiefs and Titans. This possibility could be eliminated on Saturday with a Kansas City win.
The Patriots could also still win the AFC East with a win and Bills loss.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Cardinals -5, current line: Cardinals -6.5
Arizona has already clinched a playoff berth and will clinch the NFC West with a win and Rams loss to the 49ers.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday 4:25 ET
lookahead line: Buccaneers -16.5, current line: Buccaneers -8
The Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South and can finish anywhere from the No. 2 seed with a Rams loss to the No. 4 seed with a loss to the Panthers and a Cowboys win over the Eagles. With a win, the Buccaneers would finish no lower than the No. 3 seed. The Panthers are likely to start Sam Darnold again, so we could see Darnold vs. Blaine Gabbert at some point.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 8:20 ET
lookahead line: Chargers -2.5, current line: Chargers -2.5
This is basically a win-and-in game and the other results will be known by the time the game kicks off. The Chargers are in with a win. The Raiders are also in with a win but could also clinch the playoffs with losses from the Colts and Steelers. There is also a situation where if the Colts lose, the Chargers and Raiders could tie to both make the playoffs.
