Wild Card Weekend is here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as the 2024 NFL season reaches its crescendo.
After getting a little click-happy with my picks last week, I've decided to rein it in and focus on one game this time around: Commanders at Buccaneers.
It’s a matchup brimming with intrigue, featuring a rookie quarterback trying to make playoff history against a battle-tested team led by a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield.
Discipline is the name of the game this week, and this showdown offers all the ingredients for a deep dive into playoff drama.
Click here for Pam's best prop bets for the Wild Card Round
Wild Card Round Prediction: Bucs -3 vs. Commanders
The Buccaneers hold the edge, leaning heavily on their seasoned roster and a quarterback who has been nothing short of spectacular this season.
Baker Mayfield has redefined his career in Tampa Bay, leading the charge with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, stats that mirror Tom Brady‘s 2020 Super Bowl-winning campaign.
His pinpoint accuracy, ability to scramble under pressure, and clutch decision-making have transformed the Bucs offense into one of the strongest offensive units in the league.
Mayfield's leadership and poise provide the Buccaneers with a decisive advantage in the high-stakes pressure of playoff football, where experience often proves the ultimate trump card.
And the experience edge is palpable. Postseason success is rarely kind to rookie quarterbacks, as evidenced by the 0-9 record for rookies starting road playoff games in the past decade.
With a battle-tested signal-caller like Mayfield at the helm, Tampa Bay enters the matchup with a confidence Washington’s inexperience can't replicate.
This year, the Buccaneers have become more than just a high-flying passing team. Their rushing offense has vaulted from 31st in 2023 to fourth in 2024, thanks largely to the emergence of Bucky Irving.
Tampa Bay's first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015, Irving has brought balance and unpredictability to a once one-dimensional offense. His consistency on the ground complements Mayfield’s passing prowess, making the Buccaneers an even greater challenge for opposing defenses.
The Commanders, on the other hand, are riddled with vulnerabilities that the Bucs are primed to exploit.
Washington’s pass coverage against wide receivers has a 27th grade in the league, creating a dream scenario for Tampa Bay’s veteran star Mike Evans and a range of receiving weapons.
Evans’ size and precision route-running spell trouble for Washington’s shaky secondary. Add in Mayfield’s mastery of quick-strike passes and play-action opportunities, and the Commanders’ defense could be in for a long night.
Washington’s struggles extend to stopping the run. They rank near the bottom of the league in several key metrics, 30th in yards per carry, and 31st in yards before contact. This porous run defense sets the stage for Irving to shine.
Against playoff-caliber teams, the Commanders have faltered (1-4), while the Buccaneers have surged.
All signs point to Tampa Bay flexing their postseason muscles and delivering a commanding performance to advance.
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Wild Card Round Prediction: Bucs -120 vs. Commanders Fourth Quarter
The Buccaneers have cemented themselves as the NFL's premier closers in 2024, leading the league in fourth-quarter scoring.
Their ability to dominate the final frame has been the backbone of their success, often pulling away late and leaving opponents scrambling.
While the Commanders, led by rookie standout Jayden Daniels, have also excelled in late-game scoring, ranking third in the league, the true dividing line lies in defensive performance.
Tampa Bay’s defense, orchestrated by head coach Todd Bowles, has been a lockdown unit in the fourth quarter, allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL during that crucial stretch.
In contrast, Washington’s defense has been a liability, ranking second-worst in the league in fourth-quarter points allowed.
Their recent road performances only amplify this concern, with 42 points surrendered in the final quarters of their last three away games.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer: where Tampa Bay tightens the screws, Washington unravels.
Bowles’ mastery of defensive schemes has been especially punishing for rookie quarterbacks.
When the two teams met in Week 1, Daniels struggled against Tampa Bay's relentless pressure, managing just 184 passing yards and 88 rushing yards with no touchdown passes. While Daniels has grown into his role since that rocky debut, Tampa Bay’s defense has only sharpened, evolving into one of the most feared units in the league.
The Bucs’ aggressive fourth-quarter blitzes, particularly against the Commanders' favored empty formations, could prove pivotal.
Bowles’ penchant for stunts and overload pressures is designed to confuse even the most seasoned quarterbacks, and it could spell disaster for a rookie in a high-stakes situation.
As the clock winds down, expect Tampa Bay to lean into their experience, pressuring Daniels into rushed decisions and disrupting Washington’s offensive rhythm when it matters most.
Wild Card Round Prediction: Ohio State ML + Buccaneers ML +135
With college football kicking off a massive weekend of football, let's take advantage of a great betting opportunity with Ohio State squaring off against Texas in the College Football Playoff.
The cracks in Texas' defensive armor have been exposed late in the season, raising questions about their ability to handle the Buckeyes' potent attack.
The warning signs for Texas began against Clemson when Cade Klubnik dismantled their secondary with 336 passing yards and 3 touchdowns — the most passing yards Texas allowed all season.
Klubnik’s precision exposed gaps in the Longhorns’ pass defense, particularly on intermediate and outside routes, as he completed 26 of 43 passes and earned five “big-time throws,” per Pro Football Focus.
The Peach Bowl further revealed Texas' defensive frailty.
Arizona State's Cam Skattebo turned in a historic performance, torching the Longhorns for 143 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns on the ground, and 99 receiving yards. He even threw a 42-yard touchdown pass.
Despite Texas' reputation as one of the nation’s top run defenses, Arizona State effectively gashed them on the ground and through the air.
These cracks aren’t limited to postseason play. Late in the regular season, Texas began struggling to prevent explosive plays, a trend that has worsened in the College Football Playoff.
During the regular season, Texas allowed explosive plays on 7.4% of snaps, but that number ballooned to 11.6% in CFP games. The disparity is particularly glaring in rush defense, where explosive rushes increased from 8.5% in the regular season to 12.3% in the playoffs.
Even Texas’ explosive play differential, once the third-best in the nation, flipped in the CFP as their opponents generated two more explosive plays than the Longhorns.
Ohio State’s offense is built to exploit these weaknesses.
Led by quarterback Will Howard, the Buckeyes are fourth nationally in yards per pass attempt (9.2) and graded 12th in rush by PFF. The Buckeyes' elite receiving trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate presents a nightmare matchup for a Texas secondary that has faltered against lesser opponents.
Ohio State’s balanced attack — equally dangerous on the ground and through the air — offers the perfect formula to unravel a Texas defense that has struggled against versatile offenses.
While Texas has faltered, Ohio State has thrived, maintaining a positive explosive play differential in CFP games by generating 10 more big plays than their opponents.
With the Buckeyes’ superior talent, balanced attack, and ability to generate explosive plays, Ohio State is well-positioned to capitalize on Texas' defensive struggles and is a great pairing with the Bucs' moneyline.
