Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Raiders Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Raiders win this season?
The Raiders are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Raiders Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Raiders had a 27.9% red zone differential between offense and defense in 2021. The Raiders’ defense was abysmal in the red zone, allowing a league-high 77.1% touchdown rate while the offense also struggled to score touchdowns on only 49.2% of red zone trips. Both sides of the ball are likely to see an improvement in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Davante Adams provides Derek Carr with an elite wide receiver. Adams, a superb route runner, was third in yards per route run and can win in all areas of the field.
The offense has one of the league’s top receiving trios in Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller which provides help to a quarterback with a below-average offensive line.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Raiders finished with 35 sacks despite blitzing at the league’s lowest rate in 2021. The addition of Chandler Jones gives this defensive line another legitimate pass rusher which will benefit the secondary.
The Raiders’ defense is also likely to improve as a result of improved injury luck as the defense had the sixth-highest adjusted games lost to injury. The defense which finished with the eighth-worst EPA/play can improve in 2022.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Raiders Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Raiders sacrificed significant draft capital and salary cap room to obtain Davante Adams and potentially still have the division’s fourth-best roster. The difficult division opponents set the Raiders up with the league’s third-most difficult schedule in 2022, including an extra road game.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The offensive line is the biggest concern for the Raiders’ offense heading into the 2022 season. The Raiders allowed 40 sacks in 2021 and the line ranked second last in Run Block Win Rate and 21st in Pass Block Win Rate.
If the offense struggles in 2022, the offensive line will likely be part of the reason why.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Raiders are projected to face the third-most difficult schedule of passing offenses, allowing a 66% completion rate and the seventh-highest EPA per dropback.
The secondary will require Trayvon Mullen to return to form from a toe injury and newcomer Rock Ya-Sin to step into a new team and continue to develop. The Raiders’ secondary will be tested early with games against Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes in the opening five weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders Strength of Schedule:
The Raiders are ranked #30 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the third hardest schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.