Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Rams Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Rams win this season?
The Rams are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Rams Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
General manager Les Snead found the ideal quarterback for his all-in approach. Matthew Stafford’s high variance aggressive approach fits in with the culture created by management.
Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson provide two receivers that will allow Stafford to push the ball down the field there is no reason to believe the Rams won’t continue to be near the top of the league in explosive passes.
The passing offense may not have hit its ceiling as head coach Sean McVay has remained relatively balanced on first down run-pass ratio.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Aaron Donald is without a doubt the most impactful defender in the game.
Donald creates pressure from the interior and forces teams to double team him, which creates opportunities for the rest of the Rams’ defense.
The Rams led the league in Pass Rush Win Rate in 2021 and with Donald on the field, the average time to pressure was 2.38 seconds. Donald provides the defense with such an advantage.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
There is room for improvement in Stafford’s second season. The Rams had a slightly higher red zone touchdown conversion rate with Jared Goff.
The Rams scored 80.3% of their touchdowns through the air in 2021 up from 51.2% in 2020 and a more balanced approach could lead to an increased red zone efficiency.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Rams Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The offensive line is unlikely to repeat the success of last year after leading the league in Pass Block Win Rate while taking nine false start penalties and nine holding penalties, both league-lows.
The offensive line benefitted from the starting five playing 68% of offensive snaps, the fourth-highest total, and is likely to experience worse injury luck in 2022.
Andrew Whitworth’s retirement and Austin Corbett’s departure reduce the depth of the line and injuries would cause a significant downgrade and increased pressure rate from 2021.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Rams have the division-winning schedule and play the second most difficult schedule of opponents, a much more difficult schedule from the year prior.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The top-heavy roster has a wide range of outcomes. With most of the salary cap tied up in four players, the success of the team is highly dependent on the health of Stafford, Kupp, Donald, and Ramsey.
As seen in the Super Bowl, even one ancillary injury can affect the game plan as the offense struggled after Odell Beckham was injured. Investing in Stafford and Miller with draft picks has left the roster depth thin.
The Rams’ success is highly correlated with the health of the top players.
Los Angeles Rams Strength of Schedule:
The Rams are ranked #31 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the second-toughest schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.