The Chiefs take on the Bills Sunday night in the final Divisional Round matchup, the first road playoff game for Kansas City in the Patrick Mahomes era.

The game marks the second meeting in the 2023-24 season between these two AFC heavyweights.

Late drama in the form of an offensive offsides call overshadowed the first game back in Week 14. That penalty was the talking point in the NFL the following week

The Bills have a checkered history with Shawn Hochuli, but before we get into that, we saw some interesting changes to the way NFL officials called games in the Wild Card Round.

Offensive holding penalties declined by 52% in Wild Card Weekend compared to the season averages of the six assigned referees in this category.

False start penalties saw a 23% decline compared to the six referees’ regular season averages.

We touched on this subject in our Chiefs versus Dolphins preview last week, noting a decline in offensive holding penalties was a strong likelihood.

Understandably, the NFL wants an aesthetically pleasing product in standalone games viewed by a larger-than-average audience.

The numbers from Wild Card Weekend point to more leeway being provided for offenses, something that should continue to some degree in the Divisional Round.

Now let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of Buffalo and Kansas City from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Referee Assignments for the Divisional Round  

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Penalty Tendencies:

  • Shawn Hochuli’s crew called the fewest defensive pass interference penalties and were tied for the fewest illegal contact penalties in 2023. These numbers contributed to Hochuli calling a below-average 21% of overall penalties on defensive backs this season. Only Brad Rogers and Carl Cheffers called a lower overall percentage on this position group in 2023
  • The Bills defense has surrendered approximately 22% more automatic first downs via penalty this season than the Chiefs, but both are above-average penalized units on third down plays
  • Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed is a top-three penalized defensive back in the NFL. The positive here is two-fold. The Chiefs use penalties by design on occasion. Intentionally holding an offensive player is often more beneficial than allowing that player to run free for a significant yardage gain. Secondly, in the three games Kansas City played that were officiated by the three crews mentioned above that call the lowest percentage of penalties on defensive backs, Sneed was not penalized once
  • Defensive holding and illegal use of hands are the two penalty categories that make up a higher percentage of defensive penalties with Hochuli officiating. These infractions are not excessively called but outnumber the aforementioned pass interference and illegal contact penalties
  • The Chiefs offense is an elite unit at generating defensive holding calls. They ranked No. 1 in 2022 and are co-ranked No. 1 overall in 2023. Of the two offenses taking the field on Sunday, it’s this one area that stands out from a penalty perspective in favor of the Chiefs
  • Overall, the Chiefs offense is the superior unit in this game at generating automatic first down via penalty, with the primary driver being the aforementioned defensive holding calls
  • The lower percentage of penalties assessed on defensive backs from Hochuli’s crew results in an above-average 11.5% percentage of penalties being called on linebackers. This is an area that potentially provides an advantage to the Chiefs
  • The Buffalo linebackers account for a slightly above-average 10% of the team’s overall penalties. Conversely, the Chiefs linebackers are responsible for just 3% of the team’s penalties. That is the lowest percentage of any team in the AFC
  • The Chiefs have been penalized just once for roughing the passer all season, in Week 6 versus the Broncos. Shawn Hochuli was the referee that night
  • The Bills defense has committed four roughing the passer penalties in 2023. Conversely, the Bills offense, or more specifically Josh Allen, has been the number one beneficiary of roughing the passer penalties in the 2023 NFL season
  • Shawn Hochuli led the NFL in calling roughing the passer penalties this season. This is one category that may be a factor on Sunday. The league wants the quarterbacks protected and to avoid negative publicity from highly publicized no calls, as we saw in the Lions versus Rams game after multiple hits on Mathew Stafford were not called
  • Conversely, Shawn Hochuli called the fewest unnecessary roughness penalties this season
  • The Buffalo Bills led the NFL in unnecessary roughness penalties in 2023
  • The Chiefs and Bills are top-five penalized teams for offensive holding penalties
  • The Bills defense has one of the biggest home versus road splits in generating offensive holding penalties on the opposing team. They rank in the bottom five on the road but are a top-10 unit at home
  • Shawn Hochuli has consistently ranked at or near the top of the NFL for offensive holding penalties in his career. He ranks fifth overall in 2023. As we detailed during the introduction, there was a sizable reduction in offensive holding calls last weekend. If that trend continues in the Divisional Round, many of these numbers will be irrelevant. However, both teams are susceptible, and if Hochuli’s crew were to call this like a normal game, the volume of offensive holding calls would provide a strong edge for the game to stay under the total
  • The Bills are co-leaders for taunting penalties in 2023
  • No referee has called more taunting penalties than Shawn Hochuli since he arrived in 2018. The positive for Buffalo here is Hochuli has yet to call a taunting penalty in 2023
  • The Chiefs lead the NFL for illegal block in the back penalties in 2023
  • Shawn Hochuli ranks in the top three of all referees for illegal blocks in the back, dating back to his first season in 2018. In what may be a break for the Chiefs, Hochuli has scaled back in 2023, calling only one penalty in this category
  • Offensive offside penalties were a talking point in the aftermath of the Chiefs versus Bills game in Week 14. Shawn Hochuli has never called an offensive offside penalty in his career. Each of these teams has committed one penalty apiece in this category in the 2023 season, with the Chiefs’ infraction being one of the most impactful penalties of the season to date

The Bottom Line:

  • Shawn Hochuli is 10-6 under in 2023 and 54-40-2 (56%) under the total in his career
  • Home teams are 43-50-3 ATS (46.%%) in Shawn Hochul’s career. They are 9-6 ATS in 2023, which is above Hochuli’s career average
  • In four playoff games as a head referee, home teams are just 2-2 with Shawn Hochuli and 1-3 ATS. The two home team victories were the Kansas City Chiefs 
  • The Chiefs have played an above-average amount of games with Hochuli since 2018 including the aforementioned playoff victories in 2021 and 2022.
  • The Chiefs are 8-2 on the moneyline and 4-6 ATS in those contests. While the ATS record isn’t impressive, the Chiefs were favored in every game by an average of eight points per contest. Kansas City was favored by less than a touchdown in only three of the ten games. This will be the first game the Chiefs will be the underdog with Hochuli officiating
  • Only three of the ten Chiefs games with Hochuli were on the road. They are 3-0 in those games
  • Conversely, the Bills have a limited history with Shawn Hochuli. In four games, Buffalo is 1-3 on the moneyline and 1-2-1 ATS.
  • The most recent game was a 37-34 loss in overtime at the Eagles in Week 12 of the season, the last loss for the Buffalo before their current six-game winning streak. There were some controversial calls and, more importantly, no calls that day. The officiating was a point of contention for Bills players and fans in the aftermath of the loss

The marquee game of the Divisional Round provides us with two teams that mirror each other in many key areas.

The Chiefs playing on the road is being framed as a negative. While playing at home is ideal, this provides Patrick Mahomes an opportunity to further his legacy with a playoff win in a hostile environment.

The Bills suffered some additional injuries to defensive players in their Wild Card victory over the Steelers. If they are unable to go against Kansas City, it compounds an already problematic situation for them on Sunday.

Based on the numbers we have covered, the defenses will be provided some leeway on Sunday night.

The Chiefs defense is the more rested and healthier unit going into this playoff game.

From an officiating standpoint, we’ve covered every conceivable angle. Hochuli has officiated his share of big regular season and playoff games, many of them with controversial calls.

Hochuli called the only unsportsmanlike conduct penalty ever assessed on Tom Brady in the Buccaneers’ 30-27 loss to the Rams in the Divisional Round of the 2021 season. So anything is possible in this game.

There is a familiarity angle for the Chiefs with Hochuli officiating this contest. The volume of games, often big games, that the Chiefs have played with him can’t be dismissed. That is an advantage.

Buffalo won late at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season matchup.

This game will be close, but Kansas City grinds out a win and turns the tables on Buffalo this week, advancing to the AFC Championship Game.

That makes the Chiefs +2.5 points the play in the Divisional Round.

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