NFL Referee Assignment for Week 9, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 9

Carl Cheffers’ Impact on Chiefs at Bills

Buffalo and Kansas City paths cross again, marking the fifth consecutive year the two NFL heavyweights face off in the regular season. As is often the case, the outcome will have major implications from a seeding perspective and potential home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Carl Cheffers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination accounts for an above average 41.5% of Cheffers’ overall penalties in 2025. In raw numbers, this crew ranks third in per game average of this combination.
• The Bills have struggled with offensive holding, ranking No. 1 in this category through eight weeks of the 2025 season. However, the Chiefs defense currently ranks in the bottom five at generating beneficial offensive holding calls. It will be of interest to see how tightly they call it in the trenches on Sunday.
• Offensive offsides was essentially dormant as a penalty until Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season. That infraction was once again relevant after Cheffers called offensive offsides in the Chiefs versus Bills game to negate a Kansas City go-ahead touchdown with one minute left in the game. Since that time, the penalty has been called regularly and is on record pace for a single season in 2025.
• Cheffers' crew ranks highly in two key defensive categories: co-ranking No. 1 for defensive pass interference and second for defensive holding. Those will be categories where something has to give on Sunday.
• Neither the Bills nor the Chiefs are highly penalized defensive units, mirroring each other in their defensive pass interference and defensive holding numbers in 2025, both of which are relatively low versus league averages.
• Third down conversions are always key in these games, as are potential penalties on the money down. Cheffers’ crew leads the NFL in assessing 31.5% of their overall penalties on third down plays, significantly higher than the league average of 22.3%.

The Bottom Line:

• Cheffers has been one of the better home-field referees in the NFL, with home teams recording a 97-58 (62%) record on the moneyline and 83-69-3 ATS (54%) mark since 2016. That includes a 6-1 moneyline and 6-1 ATS record in 2025.
• Home underdogs are 26-15-3 ATS (64%) with Cheffers since 2016, including a 1-1 ATS record in 2025.
• In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 9-2 on the moneyline, including 4-1 at home, in Cheffers officiated contests.
• In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 10-4 on the moneyline and 5-9 ATS in Cheffers officiated contests, most recently their Week 1 loss against the Chargers in Brazil.

As always, this is a fascinating matchup, and Buffalo made it more interesting by returning to form last week.

The assignment of Cheffers will irk Chiefs fans, despite their overall solid record with him, or they may say in spite of him.

Bottom line, there is “Bad Blood” between the fanbase and this crew, which stems from an unevenly officiated Chiefs Super Bowl LV loss to the Buccaneers in 2020.

Despite the big win over the Panthers, there have to be doubts around this Buffalo team.

The overall roster has holes, whereas the Chiefs are well-rounded and clicking on all cylinders.

The atmosphere will be off the charts for Buffalo’s first home appearance in a month.

This is an absolute “got to have it” game for the Bills, with a loss having a major impact on their chances of securing the top seed in the AFC.

Despite coming up short when it counts in the playoffs, the Bills have a history of winning these regular season contests versus their arch-nemesis.

Securing a victory here would provide a major boost at the midway point of a choppy 2025 campaign, making the Buffalo Bills +1.5 points the selection in a game decided by a razor-thin margin.

Bet the Bills +1.5

Ron Torbert’s Impact on Broncos at Texans

The Texans versus Broncos features two of the NFL’s best defensive units in a contest overseen by a crew predisposed to aiding that side of the ball at a higher than average rate.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Ron Torbert will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• An above average 52% of Torbert’s penalties are being assessed on the offense, versus the NFL average of 46.9% through eight weeks of the 2025 season.
• In raw numbers, Ron Torbert ranks fifth (of 17 crews) in the all-important false start-offensive holding penalty per game combination. Individually, they rank top five in both categories.
• An elevated 41.5% of Torbert's penalties are assessed via pre-snap infractions, with the aforementioned false starts and delay of game penalties the primary contributors.
• A below average 10% of Torbert’s overall penalties are assessed via defensive holding and defensive pass interference penalties.
• The Broncos rank as the No. 1 penalized team for defensive pass interference. The combination of defensive holding and defensive pass interference accounts for 23% of Broncos penalties in 2025, significantly higher than the NFL average of 13.7%. Negating that flaw on Sunday, the Texans offense ranks as a bottom-five beneficiary of defensive pass interference penalties this season.
• First down penalties aren't normally a focus when we’re analyzing games, but they are a point of emphasis with this crew. More specifically, offensive first down penalties. Torbert's crew calls a disproportionate 78% of first down infractions on the offense, well above the NFL average of 61.5% of first down calls on the offense.
• Torbert’s crew calls an above average percentage of special teams penalties, ranking in the top half of the league after eight weeks of the season.
• The Broncos have been on a penalty roller coaster ride this season, fluctuating in and out of double-digit penalty games since week two of the season. While not ideal, they have won more often than not in spite of this, but it clearly needs to be a focus heading into the second half of the season.

The Bottom Line:

• Torbert is 54-41-2 (57%) to the under since the start of the 2020 NFL season, including 4-3 under the total in 2025.
• The Broncos were 3-0 on the moneyline and 2-1 ATS with Torbert in the Sean Payton era, with two of those being road contests.
• The Texans have limited exposure to Torbert in the DeMeco Ryans–C.J. Stroud era, playing only one game with his crew, recording a 1-0 moneyline and ATS record.

At first glance, points will be at a premium in this one, and Torbert’s assignment simply adds to that likelihood, given his officiating history.

In a game likely to be determined by the defenses, the eventual winner may come down to which offensive line can best navigate the opposing defense and this crew's officiating on Sunday.

Houston’s win against a battered 49ers defense doesn't do much to quell concerns around their offensive line issues, and they will face a far more difficult test versus Denver.

While the Texans defense is arguably the best unit on the field, the Broncos offensive line is better equipped to handle that unit than its counterpart versus the Broncos defense.

Ultimately, that may be the difference in this one, making the Broncos +1.5 points the play in a contest that goes down to the wire.

Bet the Broncos +1.5

Craig Wrolstad’s Impact on Colts at Steelers

The AFC-leading Colts at the struggling Steelers is the marquee matchup of the early Sunday window, a pivotal game for both teams as we head into the second half of the 2025 season.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Craig Wrolstad will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The Colts and Steelers go into this contest as two of the least penalized offenses in the NFL, ranking 31st and 29th in offensive penalty per game average.
• Wreolstad ranked No. 1 for pre-snap penalties per game in 2204. Although not leading the league this season, this crew is still calling an above average 40% of their overall penalties via pre-snap infractions in 2025.
• The Colts rank 31st in pre-snap penalties per game.
• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination has not been an issue for either team in 2025, with both teams ranking below the NFL average in these key categories.
• The Steelers defense (and home crowd) have been the No. 1 unit generating offensive pre-snap and holding penalties on opposing offenses at home since the start of the 2018 season. Their ability to generate these beneficial penalties has plummeted in 2025, with the Steelers defense ranking in the bottom third of the league. Putting opponents in long yardage situations via penalties was a key element of this defense's success, and that has all but evaporated through eight weeks of the 2025 season.

The Bottom Line:

• Home underdogs are 24-42-2 ATS (37%) in Wrolstad officiated contests since 2016, including a 2-2 ATS mark in 2025.
• The Steelers are 7-4 ATS all time with Wrolstad, including a 1-2 ATS record in three games as home underdogs.
• Wrolstad is 5-3 over the total in 2025 and was 11-7 over in 2024.

Entering this game off consecutive losses, the Steelers' season is at a crossroads, and things don't get any easier this week with the high-powered Colts coming into town.

The Steelers defense is elite in name only, having surrendered 30+ points in four of seven games this season, prompting Cameron Heyward to question the team's fight in the aftermath of their Sunday Night Football loss to the Packers.

Wrolstad officiated contests have trended over the total since the start of the 2024 season, and that might be the optimal way to approach this game from a betting perspective.

It's a fork in the road moment for Pittsburgh.

Obviously, an outright win is their goal, but for us, can they cover the point spread?

Based on the numbers we’ve detailed, they're up against it in that regard.

Despite that, we're taking a leap of faith in a got to have spot for a veteran team in dire need of a marquee win versus the hottest team in the AFC, making the Pittsburgh Steelers +3 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Steelers +3

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career