We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or bad no-call. Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.
Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.
A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.
Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.
Same team. Different outcomes.
Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.
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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 2
| Week 2 | Referee |
|---|---|
| Commanders at Packers | Brad Rogers |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Alan Eck |
| Bears at Lions | Land Clark |
| Giants at Cowboys | Bill Vinovich |
| 49ers at Saints | Shawn Smith |
| Patriots at Dolphins | Alex Moore |
| Bills at Jets | Clete Blakeman |
| Rams at Titans | John Hussey |
| Seahawks at Steelers | Scott Novak |
| Browns at Ravens | Brad Allen |
| Broncos at Colts | Craig Wrolstad |
| Panthers at Cardinals | Ron Torbert |
| Eagles at Chiefs | Alex Kemp |
| Falcons at Vikings | Adrian Hill |
| Buccaneers at Texans | Shawn Hochuli |
| Chargers at Raiders | Clay Martin |
Alex Kemp’s Impact on Eagles at Chiefs
The marquee game of the week provides us with an almost immediate Super Bowl rematch, with Kansas City looking as vulnerable as at any time in the Patrick Mahomes era. The beatdown at the hands of the Eagles is fresh in the minds of Chiefs players and coaches, and this game takes on even more urgency after a loss in the opening week of the season.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Kemp will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- Offensive units accounted for 47% of overall penalties committed in the opening weekend of the NFL, a decline from previous seasons. The Chiefs were an outlier, with their offense accounting for 60% of the team's infractions versus the Chargers.
- Conversely, the Eagles offense was the model of efficiency, responsible for just 12% of the team's penalties. That said, Philadelphia was heavily penalized, but primarily on the defensive side of the ball.
- Despite a lower overall percentage of offensive penalties, offensive holding increased compared to 2024 numbers. Additionally, last week represented the third-highest rate of offensive holding penalties called in Week 1 of a season since 2010.
- Offensive holding has been the No. 1 penalty issue for the Chiefs the past few seasons. The Kansas City offensive line was exposed by this Eagles defensive front in the Super Bowl. That continued last week versus the Chargers, with the Chiefs penalized multiple times for false start and offensive holding. That contributed to the Chiefs ranking 32nd in offensive EPA after the opening week of the season.
- Alex Kemp’s crew ranked second in offensive holding penalties per game in 2024 and currently co-rank No. 1 in 2025.
The Bottom Line:
- Home teams are 56-58-1 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career.
- Dating back to 2024, favorites are an NFL-leading 17-1 on the moneyline and 13-5 ATS in Alex Kemp officiated games.
- Alex Kemp is 63-52-1 over in his career.
The Eagles hold an advantage in the trenches and get a major boost with the presence of Jalen Carter along the defensive line for this contest.
The Chiefs benefit from one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, but the Arrowhead mystique won’t have the same impact on this Eagles team, which has won here recently.
There will be endless analysis in the lead-up to the game, but the fact may be that the Eagles are simply the better team, particularly along the offensive line.
That advantage up front laid the foundation for their dominant win back in February and will do so again this week, making the Philadelphia Eagles -1 the selection in the Super Bowl rematch
Shawn Hochuli’s Impact on Buccaneers at Texans
The MNF double-header is a match-up of two playoff teams from last season, with each defensive unit holding an edge over the opposing offense. The Texans, in particular, have an offensive line that continues to be problematic, as it was for them throughout the 2024 season.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- Shawn Hochuli led the NFL by calling 57.5% of overall penalties on the offense in 2024, well above the league average of 51.8%. In raw numbers, this crew ranked No. 1 in offensive penalties per game last season. However, Hochuli was uncharacteristically light on offensive penalties last week in Seattle. History suggests that won't continue.
- Offensive penalties were a major issue for the Texans in 2024, and that trend carried over last week at the Rams. The Texans offense was responsible for 7 penalties, co-ranking Houston No. 1 in the NFL in offensive penalty per game average.
- The Texans have recorded an elevated percentage of offensive penalties in Shawn Hochuli officiated contests over the past two seasons, with 67% of penalties being assessed on the offensive side of the ball.
- Unsportsmanlike conduct is a point of emphasis in 2025, and Hochuli was one official who called this infraction last week. Add in the fact that this is a primetime contest, and the likelihood of a discipline-related penalty being called increases significantly based on historical numbers.
- Shawn Hochuli has officiated three Texans games the past two seasons, with 67% of Houston's penalties in those contests coming from the offense.
The Bottom Line:
- Home teams are 51-59-4 ATS (46.5%) in Hochuli’s career, including 0-1 ATS in 2025.
- Shawn Hochuli is 66-47-2 (58%) under the total in his career, including 1-0 under in 2025.
- The aforementioned inflated penalty numbers for the Texans in the DeMeco Ryans/C.J. Stroud era with Hochuli officiating have resulted in an 0-3 record for Houston in those contests. To be fair, they were all road games, so there should be some improvement at home this week.
The opening weekend of the NFL can sometimes cloud our judgment as we look ahead to the second week of the season, as teams can improve dramatically after that initial poor performance.
Admittedly, Houston was on the road against a great Rams defense, but the Texans' revamped offensive line looks to be very much a work in progress.
It may take some time for it to become a cohesive unit if what we saw against the Rams was any indication.
Tampa Bay also has room for improvement offensively, with a lackluster performance versus a subpar Atlanta defense last week, and is facing a far more difficult opponent in the Texans.
The battle between DeMeco Ryans‘ and Todd Bowles’ defenses combined with an expected return to Hochuli’s emphasis on offensive penalties makes the under the most logical wager in this game.
As for the winner, Tampa Bay benefits from a slight offensive continuity edge compared to the disjointed Texans offense we witnessed last week.
That will be a key factor, making the Buccaneers +2.5 points the selection on MNF.
Scott Novak’s Impact on Seahawks at Steelers
Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers slayed his former team last week with a vintage performance, and the Steelers look to repeat that against Seattle in DK Metcalf’s first time facing his former team.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Scott Novak will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- Scott Novak ranked second in calling offensive penalties in 2024, with 57% of his crew's calls assessed on the offense. That continued in 2025, with 57.5% of Novak’s overall penalties called on the offenses after the opening week of action.
- The Steelers rank as the No. 1 home field penalty advantage in the NFL. The Steelers defense's ability to generate offensive pre-snap and holding penalties on opposing offenses is a force multiplier that results in Pittsburgh more often than not ending home games with a penalty advantage.
- Potentially compounding that problem for Seattle is new quarterback Sam Darnold, who struggled with pre-snap penalties last season in Minnesota and throughout his career. The Seahawks ended the 2024 season averaging the second-most offensive penalties per game, and will be put to the test on Sunday at Acrisure Stadium.
- The Steelers committed just one offensive penalty in Rodgers’ team debut at the Jets last week, a continuation of his mastery along the line that has been a staple throughout his career.
The Bottom Line:
- Home teams are a dismal 37-56-3 ATS (40%) in Scott Novak officiated contests, including 0-1 ATS in 2025.
- The Steelers are one team that hasn't fallen victim to Novak's home field numbers, recording a perfect 3-0 record on the moneyline and ATS in Novak officiated contests in Pittsburgh.
Seattle’s offense was disjointed last week at home and looks to be a work in progress.
The fact is, last season in Minnesota was an outlier in Sam Darnold’s career.
What we saw last week versus the 49ers is more typical of a Darnold performance than what he achieved under Kevin O’Connell in 2024.
The presence of Aaron Rodgers provides the Steelers some leeway defensively, as evidenced last week at the Jets.
However, the Pittsburgh defense needs to up its game versus Seattle, and history suggests they will do that back at home this week.
It's the Steelers' home opener and their last game in Pittsburgh until Week 6 of the 2025 season.
This team won in miraculous fashion last week, and it could be a sign of something magical building for a team constructed to win immediately.
That momentum carries over this week, making the Pittsburgh Steelers -3 points the selection in this contest.
2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends
A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.
Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 43-39 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill, including a career best 12-5 ATS in 2023
- Adrian Hill is 45-36-1 Under in his career
- In Divisional games, Hill is 14-8-1 Under in his career
Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 47-50-1 ATS in Kemp's career
- Divisional home teams are 14-18 on the moneyline and 13-19 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
- Kemp is 16-16i in Divisional game totals for his career, including 2-2 in 2023
Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams were 13-3 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS in 2023, Alan Eck's first season as a head referee
- Alan Eck was 10-6 Under in 2023
Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- True home teams are 42-54-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018 and went just 5-10-2 ATS with Vinovich in 2023
- Bill Vinovich is 61-38-2 Under since 2018, including 11-7 Under in 2023
Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
- Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those same games since 2016
- Brad Allen is 73-55 Under since 2016
Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 39-37 on the moneyline and 38-38 ATS in Brad Rogers' career
- Brad Rogers is 43-33 Over the total in his career
- Brad Rogers is 18-10 Over in career Divisional games
Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 79-52 on the moneyline since 2016 with Cheffers officiating
- Home teams are 67-62-2 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
- Divisional home teams are 29-18 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016
Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Clay Martin is 46-43-3 Under in his career. Martin was 11-4-2 Over in 2023
- True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 47-44 on the moneyline & 37-52-2 ATS
- Divisional home teams are 13-15 on the moneyline & 9-19 with Clay Martin officiating
Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 61-67-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
- Divisional home teams are 24-22 on the moneyline since 2016
- Blakeman is 23-23 on divisional totals including 4-3 under in 2023
Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 63-63 on the moneyline and 51-73-2 ATS since 2016
- Home underdogs are 20-36–1 ATS since 2016, including a 3-3-1 ATS in 2023
John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 90-41 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
- Home teams are 79-47-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016
- Home teams were 14-3 on the moneyline and 13-3-1 ATS with John Hussey in 2023
Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 25-37-1 ATS in Land Clark’s career
- Clark is 36-26-1 Under the total in his career, although he was 9-7 Over in 2023
Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 27-49-3 ATS (36%) in Scott Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
- Divisional home teams are 9-20-1 ATS (31%) in Scott Novak's career
Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 43-51-3 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including a 9-7-1 ATS record in 2023
- Shawn Hochuli was 10-7 Under in 2023 and is 54-41-2 Under the total in his career
- In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 26-11-1 Under the total in his career
Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams were 3-13 on the moneyline and 4-11-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2023
- Home teams are 42-53-1 on the moneyline and 39-54-3 ATS in Smith's career
- Shawn Smith was 11-6 Under in 2023 and is 49-47-1 Under the total in his career
Tra Blake: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams 18-13 on the moneyline and 16-15 ATS in Tra Blake's career
- Divisional home teams are 7-1 on the moneyline & 6-2 ATS in Tra Blake's career
