The wait is finally over. The 2025 NFL season is here, allowing bettors to dive into one of the most exciting player prop markets: Who will lead the league in passing yards in Week 1?
Most Week 1 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Trevor Lawrence (+1200)
The Liam Coen Duval era begins in South Florida on Sunday with a meeting against the Panthers, who gave up 65 more points than the second-worst defense last season.
The Carolina defense still has some big holes, sporting the 30th-ranked secondary in both our site rankings and over at PFF, which bodes well for Trevor Lawrence in his first game with his third head coach.
This game has shootout potential.
It features the two defenses that gave up the most yards last season.
Coen is familiar with this defense and led Baker Mayfield to a five-touchdown, 359-yard passing performance in Week 17 last season.
After finishing the season with the league's second-highest average depth of target, Lawrence will likely be asked to do less as Coen reduced Mayfield’s air yards per throw by nearly 20% from his previous season with the Buccaneers.
That might not sound great for a bet to lead the league in passing, but Lawrence will easily make up for that lower aDOT if he can match the efficiency gains Mayfield experienced in this system last year.
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Week 1 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Drake Maye Over 300 Passing Yards (+750)
The Drake Maye sophomore leap can begin on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders.
After facing a top-five most difficult schedule of passing defenses last season, Maye gets a softball in Week 1.
The Raiders have the 32nd-ranked secondary according to both our site rankings and PFF.
The Patriots offense features four new offensive linemen after ranking 31st in ESPN’s pass rush win rate last year.
New England also added Stefon Diggs, a wide receiver with six 1000-yard seasons on his resume.
Running the offense is a familiar face in New England, Josh McDaniels, who could be looking to run up the score as revenge against his former employer.
This is a great spot for Maye to start his season, and he could be a good target for yardage and touchdown props.
