Thanksgiving football delivers a feast of betting excitement, and this year’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers could offer plenty of action.
With the Packers finding their offensive rhythm and the Dolphins bringing one of the league’s best receiving corps, Lambeau Field sets the stage for a compelling showdown.
I’ll be diving into the spread as Green Bay looks to defend their home turf, the total with two explosive offenses primed for points, and a standout Josh Jacobs rushing prop that capitalizes on Miami’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Let’s break down why this Thanksgiving clash offers value for bettors.
Thanksgiving Day Prediction: Dolphins at Packers Over 47
Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return from injury, the Miami offense has shown remarkable improvement.
They have averaged 29.0 points per game in the five games since Tagovailoa's return, a sharp rise from the 10.0 points per game during his absence.
Tagovailoa has been exceptionally efficient in the passing game, leading the NFL in passing accuracy with a 73% completion rate and putting up a passer rating of 116.2 since returning. That passer rating is the highest in the league for quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.
His five-game streak of throwing at least 70% completion is the longest such streak of his career and the longest active streak in the NFL.
Tagovailoa's accuracy has led to higher efficiency with the Dolphins scoring on 14 of 19 red zone trips since Tagovailoa's return.
While the Dolphins offense has shown improvement, it's the Packers' offensive potential that really stands out as a key contributor to pushing this game over the total of 47 points and why I like Green Bay to cover as home favorites.
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Thanksgiving Day Prediction: Packers -3 vs. Dolphins
The Packers are finding their groove offensively, ranking ninth in EPA per play and sixth in offensive success rate since Week 6.
This resurgence aligns with Jordan Love’s growing mastery of the system, highlighted by their 38-point explosion against the 49ers.
Love’s confidence and the Packers' balanced attack have transformed them into one of the league’s most efficient offenses.
Meanwhile, Miami’s defense, while improving, has mostly thrived against weaker opponents.
They’ve been exposed when facing top-10 offenses by DVOA, surrendering an average of 30 points per game.
Against Green Bay’s third-ranked DVOA offense, those cracks could widen significantly.
Add the legendary Lambeau Field advantage into the mix, and the Packers are primed to cover the -3 spread with authority.
Bet on Green Bay to keep their offensive momentum rolling and secure the win at home.
Thanksgiving Day Prediction: Josh Jacobs Over 70 rushing yards
Josh Jacobs is poised for another standout performance.
Green Bay’s rushing attack, graded fourth by PFF, sets the tone for what could be a dominant ground game.
Miami hasn’t faced a rushing offense this potent since back-to-back losses to Arizona and Buffalo.
Jacobs, meanwhile, is heating up, posting his second 100+ yard game in his last four starts with a 106-yard effort against San Francisco.
He’s a tackle-breaking machine, leading the league in missed tackles forced in a game this season (10 vs. SF).
Jacobs ranks third in yards after contact (723), second in yards after contact per attempt (3.58), and has racked up 25 runs of 10+ yards, tied for third-most in the NFL.
With the Dolphins' third-lowest tackle grade at PFF and Jacobs running in cold weather on a short week, this is a ground game mismatch waiting to happen.
Expect Jacobs to plow past 70+ rushing yards with ease.
