Each week, Coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach’s perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread throughout the 2022 NFL season.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets

Let’s be honest. The Dolphins are way better than the Jets. Subbing in one player for Tua Tagovailoa in the form of Teddy Bridgewater isn’t going to be the difference in a Zach Wilson-led offense. They still have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Their defense is No. 4 against the run in DVOA and I am not worried about Wilson beating them with his arm. 

Bridgewater didn’t actually look that bad against the Bengals and that was when he didn’t even know he would play. Give him 10 days to get ready, knowing he is auditioning for his next starting gig in the NFL, and I believe he will play good football. 

He averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt last week after he came in and completed 61% of his passes. The Jets pass defense is ranked as No. 29 and two of those games were against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, who don’t exactly scare people with their passing attack. Bridgewater could throw for 300. 

So check out the other side.

I’ll quote @sharpfootball in a tweet on October 5:  

good news for Miami  they average 7.9 yds/pass play  #2 best

bad news for Miami they allow 7.4 yds/pass play  #2 worst

NYJ D has allowed WRs to gain 9.3 yards/target (#29) with a 9.7% TD rate (#32) and now face Tyreek & Waddle

It has long been documented on social media what I think about Zach Wilson’s skills. Here are some fitting sayings in line with my thoughts. He couldn’t throw it in the ocean if he was on the beach (he would miss somehow). He couldn’t play dead in a western. 

Well, you get it. Let’s check Next Gen Stats. Sure enough, they back me up. Wilson was No. 28 in CPOE last week in his game. I know, I know. Miami’s pass defense is towards the bottom of the league in many categories. But the quarterback has to be able to hit the open guys. Add in the fact that the Dolphins like to blitz and Wilson has been awful versus pressure all the way back to his college days and he can’t even take advantage of their weakness. Warren Sharp’s facts above play in except for Wilson.

Give me the Dolphins -3 over the J-E-T-S  Jets, Jets, Jets.

» Bet Dolphins vs Jets Now

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Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals

How in the world is the Eagles team only favored by 5.5 over the Arizona Cardinals? Jalen Hurts has led the Eagles to be the No. 4 scoring team in the league with 29 PPG, Arizona is 14th at 22 PPG. Arizona allows eight more PPG than Philadelphia. The Eagles gain over 80 YPG more than the Cardinals. The Eagles are better on third down, lead the lead in sacks (Cardinals are dead last), and have over twice as many interceptions as the Cardinals do. 

Kyler Murray has been awful without DeAndre Hopkins last year and this year. The Eagles are undefeated and teams that win the game in the NFL are over 85% ATS. Is that enough to believe the Eagles win by six or more?

If not, there is more. Just look at overall team rankings. The Eagles are No. 2 in total DVOA while the Cards are No. 29. Philadelphia is No. 4 in offensive DVOA while Arizona is No. 22. The Eagles are No. 3 in defensive DVOA and the Cardinals are No. 29. 

Next Gen Stats is one of my favorite providers as I discovered this trend a few years ago after we get a few games into the season. Passing accuracy is a huge thing in determining who wins ATS and Jalen Hurts currently ranks No. 4 in the NFL while Murray is No. 26. 

I truly can find no reason for the Cardinals to keep this within one score and love the Eagles -5.5. 

» Bet Eagles vs Cardinals Now

Extras

For some fun, I like the Saints and Seattle over. Geno Smith is playing well and should be able to score on the Saints and Winston is good enough to score on Seattle’s defense that Warren Sharp pointed out gives up 8.2 YPA, gives up points on 55% of the drives against them, and over 3 points per drive. All are at the bottom of the league in those categories. Over 46 it is. 

Have a great NFL week!

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