TCU vs. North Carolina, Current Betting Odds:
- TCU -8.5 points (Hard Rock)
This season I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let's kick things off with the season opener from Dublin, Ireland, featuring North Carolina and TCU.
TCU vs. North Carolina Best Bet Prediction:
- North Carolina +8.5 points
Bill Belichick’s defense should be ready, and Bobby Petrino provides some hope for the offense, so let’s take the points and bet North Carolina against the spread.
When TCU Is on Offense
Heading into Bill Belichick’s debut last season, we correctly predicted TCU would run all over the Carolina defense.
Belichick had never faced a spread scheme like TCU’s, and his stubborn commitment to lining up with heavy boxes was the wrong approach for that style of offense.
However, we have to throw all that analysis out the window because of TCU’s change at offensive coordinator.
Kendal Briles left for the same position at South Carolina, and head coach Sonny Dykes brought in former UConn coordinator Gordon Sammis to run the offense.
Sammis did a nice job with the Huskies under Jim Mora, but he runs a pro-style system that plays right into Belichick’s hand.
Take a look at the rate TCU and UConn running backs carried the ball into stacked boxes last year, via data from Sports Info Solutions:
- TCU: 38%, ranked 35th
- UConn: 71%, ranked 131st
Since Sammis’ favored formations allow defenses to stack the box at a high rate, TCU loses the biggest advantage it had over Belichick’s defense last year.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Belichick’s defense stacked the box 32% above expected against the run, the nation’s 16th-highest rate.
Due to Belichick’s unwillingness to adapt, TCU's run game eviscerated the Tar Heel defense, as its running backs gained 242 yards on 30 carries out of 11 personnel formations (8.1 yards per attempt).
However, Sammis’ running backs only carried the ball out of 11 personnel 34% of the time last season.
This should concern TCU in this matchup, because when Belichick stacked the box in appropriate situations, his defense was relatively strong.
Opposing running backs gained just 3.6 yards per attempt out of 12 personnel against North Carolina, ranked 24th in the country.
Despite these concerns about the matchup in the run game, TCU might still control this game due to Sammis’ tendency to lean on the pass.
According to Campus2Canton, UConn had a pass rate 8.7% above expected based on situational data.
TCU also appears to have the right quarterback for Sammis’ pro-style system in Jaden Craig, a transfer out of Harvard.
Although Craig is not a serious threat on the move, he demonstrated a decent ability to avoid negative plays, only taking a sack on 14% of his dropbacks versus pressure according to PFF.
The jump up in competition is a concern, but North Carolina’s defense ranked 118th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated last year, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Tar Heels only made one notable portal addition at edge rusher, adding Richmond’s Donovan Hoilette Jr.
That means the pass-rush unit is unlikely to make a substantial leap.
Although Craig is expected to be a serviceable quarterback for the Horned Frogs, it is unclear whether he has the weapons at receiver to lead a high-powered offense.
Last year at UConn, Sammis relied on a quick passing attack, often getting the ball in the hands of Skyler Bell on screens and other short routes.
Jordan Dwyer is TCU’s most experienced receiver, but he is more of a downfield threat.
6-foot-3 South Alabama transfer Jeremy Scott fits a similar profile.
Major Everhart and Ed Small are expected to compete for snaps in the slot, potentially playing a role similar to Bell at UConn, but the two combined to run just 168 routes a season ago.
It’s also worth noting Dwyer was dealing with an injury this offseason and missed the majority of training camp.
Given TCU’s lack of experience on offense, there’s a chance North Carolina’s secondary holds up well despite the lack of pass rush.
Even when the Tar Heels failed to generate pressure last year, they still only allowed 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 29th in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
North Carolina’s secondary should remain strong due to returning cornerbacks Kaleb Cost and Jaiden Patterson.
When North Carolina Is on Offense
Belichick set his offense up for failure last year by hiring long-time NFL coach Freddie Kitchens at offensive coordinator and pairing him with a mobile quarterback in Gio Lopez.
Kitchens' pro-style scheme immediately clashed with Lopez’s skill set, and neither was equipped to adjust.
This past offseason, Belichick fixed his mistake and made the best hire of his brief tenure in Bobby Petrino, who led a prolific offense for a talent-deprived Arkansas program a season ago.
So while there are still concerns about the overall talent on that side of the ball, it’s safe to bet Petrino will have a competent unit, so long as Belichick stays out of the way and lets him run his aggressive scheme.
The more questionable decision from North Carolina’s offseason was the addition of Billy Edwards Jr. at quarterback.
Edwards flopped at Maryland before playing just two games due to injury at Wisconsin last year.
Due to his limitations as a downfield passer, Edwards doesn’t offer much upside, but he might have accuracy and mobility to be serviceable in Petrino’s offense.
During his last full year as a starter in 2024 at Maryland, Edwards’ catchable pass rate on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage was 91.8%, ranked 23rd in the FBS.
If he maintains that accuracy, he’ll at least set his receivers up for opportunities to make plays after the catch.
However, Petrino tends to ask his quarterbacks to hang in the pocket.
Last year, Taylen Green took a traditional dropback of three or more steps 63% of the time, the nation’s 13th-highest rate according to Sports Info Solutions.
Edwards’ traditional dropback rate was 50% in 2024, but his production was uninspiring (54% completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt).
The lack of talent around him was certainly a factor, but there’s no reason to believe the playmakers at North Carolina are an upgrade.
Fortunately for Carolina, TCU did not fare well defending traditional dropbacks last season and did little to upgrade the defense.
When opposing quarterbacks took a traditional dropback, the Frogs only generated a 41% pressure rate, ranked 78th.
TCU does return three of its four leaders in pressures, but the loss of linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr to the NFL is significant.
The biggest question for North Carolina’s offense is whether the offensive line can improve from last year’s performance.
Fortunately, the unit appears to be healthy entering the year, which was an issue in 2025.
Starting center Christo Kelly was injured in the season opener, and right guard Aidan Banfield was injured in Week 4.
Both missed the remainder of the year.
Partially due to those injuries, the offensive line was one of the worst in the country, ranking 132nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Tar Heels also ranked 85th in yards before contact generated in the run game.
If those numbers don’t improve, it will be tough for Carolina to be competitive even with Petrino’s help, but the return of two healthy starters plus the addition of transfer Andrew Threatt provides reason to believe the unit will be adequate.
Final Thoughts on North Carolina vs. TCU Best Bets
Trust Belichick’s defense and bet North Carolina against the spread.
Belichick was in over his head in the college game last year, but mostly against teams running spread offenses like TCU and Clemson.
TCU’s shift to a pro-style scheme plays right into Belichick’s hand and levels the playing field.
Belichick proved he can still coach against teams running offenses he’s used to defending and had a number of close games against more talented teams like Virginia and California.
UNC might not have the offense to win outright, but this should be a tight, low-scoring game.
