Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. Sometimes betting on the other end of a trend ending can be advantageous. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
Reid off Rest
By now you’ve already known that teams coached by Andy Reid have been excellent following their bye week. As a head coach, his teams have a gaudy 17-3 record straight up coming off of rest and 13-7 record against the line. After a 13-1 (10-4 ATS) record with the Eagles in those conditions, his teams in Kansas City are 4-2, but have shown some mortality against the number, going 3-3 with two consecutive failed covers.
Fortunately, this Sunday’s game also comes along with another positive trend surrounding the Chiefs.
Since 2015, the Chiefs have a dominant 24-3 (88.9%) record against their divisional opponents, the highest mark in the league. Against the line, they are also a league-best 19-8 (70.4%) over that span in divisional games. During that time, Kansas City has gone 8-1 against the Raiders and 6-3 against the spread. At home, the Chiefs haven’t lost to the Raiders since 2012, winning all six of those games by six or more points with four double-digit point wins.
Ravens Hosting the NFC
The game of the week is the 10-1 49ers heading to Baltimore to face the 9-2 Ravens. Baltimore has found another gear of late, scoring 30 or more points in five consecutive games for the first time in franchise history and 40 or more points in three straight for the first time ever. Not only scoring points, but holding down their opponents. Baltimore is the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive games by 34 or more points.
This Sunday they find themselves in a spot that has favored the opposition from a betting stance. In their past eight games at home hosting an NFC team, the Ravens have gone 1-7 against the spread. They are 0-2 against the spread with Lamar Jackson in those games, which includes a failed cover hosting the Cardinals in Week 2 this season when they were 13-point favorites.
After losing 12 straight games in the Eastern Time Zone, the 49ers have won their past three games east, but the last time that they beat a team with a winning record in the Eastern Time Zone was back in 2012 when they beat the Patriots.
The NFC Has Owned the Jaguars
With losses and failed covers to the Panthers and Saints already on their resume this season, the Jaguars have now lost and failed to cover versus an NFC opponent in five straight games.
Since 2013, the Jaguars are a league-worst 4-22 (15.4%) heads up and also against the spread versus an out-of-conference opponent. As favorites, the Jaguars are 2-7 straight up and against the spread in those games. This weekend, the Jaguars host the Buccaneers and even after losing their past three games by a combined score of 101-36, they and are 1-point favorites on Sunday.
New York Has Not Been a Giant Advantage
After winning in the first two career starts of Daniel Jones’s career, the Giants have since dropped their past seven games. It’s the first time they have lost seven consecutive games for the first time since 2014. To compound matters, they’ve not only been bad, but even worse at home.
Since the start of last season, the Giants are 3-10 at home. That mark is only better than the Cardinals (2-10-1) while the Giants are a league-worst 2-10-1 against the spread at home over that span. That includes a three-game losing and failed cover streak since their Week 4 win and cover versus Washington.
Prime Time Home Seahawks
We’ve had a couple of trends surrounding Russell Wilson this season that have held up, but this one is a combination of he and Pete Carroll. Since hiring Carroll in 2010, the Seahawks are 18-2 (.900) in home primetime games, trailing only the Ravens (11-1) over that span. Against the line, they’ve been nearly equally impressive in those games, posting a 15-4-1 record.
With Wilson under center, those marks are a 14-2 record straight up with a 12-4-1 record against the spread. Since the Vikings hired Mike Zimmer in 2014, Seattle is 3-0 against the Vikings.