As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. Sometimes betting on the other end of a trend ending can be advantageous. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
Titans of the Scoreboard
Since Ryan Tannehill took over the starting quarterback in Week 7, the Titans have been one of the hottest teams in football. Only the Ravens (7-0) have a better record than Tennessee (6-1) over that span. Not only are the Titans winning games, but they covering games and scoring a ton of points in the process.
From Week 7 on, the Titans have scored a touchdown on 35.1% (27-of-77) of their possessions (second in the league) after 15.7% (11-of-70) prior (28th). They lead the NFL in yards per play on offense (6.9) over those weeks and have now accounted for the two highest games of yards per play on offense for any team on the entire season in two of the past three weeks.
Against the line, the Titans are 5-1-1 with Tannehill under center and because they’ve been scoring so many points, all seven of those games have gone over the game total, with an average of 54.7 combined points scored over that stretch.
This week, the Titans host the Texans in a huge game for control of the AFC South. Houston is 7-3 straight up and against the spread against the Titans under Bill O’ Brien, but have lost and failed to cover in three straight games visiting the Titans in Nashville.
Dallas Struggling Against Winners
The Cowboys have dropped three games in a row. Any three-game losing streak in a season is tough, but Dallas has been one the most matchup-sensitive bets to make this season. In games against teams with a winning record, Dallas is 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread.
That will be put to the test once again this weekend as they host an 8-5 Rams team that has turned their season around by winning three of their past four games. The Rams have also been a hot bet on the road, going 7-1 against the spread over their past eight road games.
Rams games have also been trending towards lower scoring than expected. This hasn’t been the electric Rams offense of the past two seasons under Sean McVay. Currently, the Rams rank 15th in scoring rate per drive (36.1%) and 20th in touchdown rate per drive (21.1%). Paired with that, their defense has gotten hot, allowing 17 or fewer points in six of their past seven games. Because of those two things, seven of their past eight games have gone under the game total.
Washington Hasn’t Been Much of a Rival
At 3-10, Washington hosts the Eagles this weekend. Playing against their fellow NFC East teams hasn’t been kind to Washington. They’ve lost seven consecutive games against divisional rivals, going 1-6 against the spread in those contests.
Facing the Eagles has been extra tough for Washington. Philadelphia has won five consecutive games against Washington (4-1 ATS), their longest streak in the rivalry since winning seven games in a row over the 2001-2004 seasons.
Betting on the Eagles, however, has been a losing task of late. The Eagles have been one of the worst bets to make recently, dropping four straight games against the spread.
A Giant Versus a Dolphin
We don’t want to leave an NFC East team out of things this weekend, so we might as well include the Giants, who host the Dolphins this weekend.
The Dolphins are once again underdogs this weekend, something they’re familiar with at this point. Miami is an underdog for their 15th consecutive game dating back to last season, their longest streak as an underdog in franchise history. But taking Miami with the points has been one the hottest bets to make. The Dolphins are a league-best 7-2 against the spread since their Week 5 bye.
On the other side, betting against the Giants at home has been one the best bets over the past two years. The Giants are a league-worst 2-11-1 against the spread at home since the start of last season and have covered in just four of their past 12 games as a home favorite.
If it isn’t broke…
There are two other running trends that we’ve highlighted in this space earlier in the season that have hit multiple times, so we might as well keep going to them until they bite us.
The first is the Chiefs facing a Divisional opponent. Since 2015, the Chiefs have a dominant 25-3 record straight up and 20-8 record against the spread against their divisional opponents, which includes a 4-0 record straight up and against the spread against their rivals this season. That also includes the Chiefs winning eight consecutive games versus the Broncos (7-1 ATS), their longest winning streak in this rivalry since the 1964-1969 seasons.
The other profitable trend this weekend that has been good to us so far has been betting on Seattle when they play on the East Coast, which they do this weekend traveling to face a fading Carolina team. Since drafting Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks are 18-6 in the Eastern Time Zone (16-7-1 ATS) with six consecutive wins, including going 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) in those games this season. The Panthers are 1-6 (2-5 ATS) over their seven games since their Week 7 bye, while seven of their past nine games have gone over the game total.
