Oklahoma State vs. Houston, Current Betting Odds:
- Houston -4.5 points
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Oklahoma State vs. Houston Best Bet Prediction:
- Over 62.5 points
Both defenses are having trouble defending the pass, so let's trust these two experienced quarterbacks and take the over at 62.5 points.
Oklahoma State's Key Matchup on Offense
Oklahoma State runs a fast-paced, aggressive offense, and the only way to stop them is to prevent quarterback Drew Mestemaker from generating big plays down the field.
Outside the red zone, 25% of Oklahoma State's pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, and the Cowboys are completing an impressive 50% of those attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Houston's downfield pass defense hasn't been terrible 一 40% completion rate allowed at that depth 一 but the Cougars haven't faced a quarterback who deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Mestemaker.
Mestemaker started the season slowly, completing just 36% of his passes of 10 or more yards in a shocking loss to Tulsa, but he's completed at least 55% of his throws at that depth against everyone else.
Although Mestemaker likes to attack downfield, expect the Cowboys to have some success in the underneath passing game as well due to Houston's inability to step up and limit yards after catch.
Houston is allowing 7.9 yards per completion on throws five or fewer yards downfield, ranked 123rd according to Sports Info Solutions.
Due to these issues, the Cougars rank 103rd in explosive pass rate allowed, giving up 20 or more yards on 11.3% of attempts.
Based on these numbers, it's hard to envision Houston slowing down an Oklahoma State passing attack ranked seventh in explosive pass rate.
Houston's Key Matchup on Offense
Houston runs a balanced offense, but the Cougars will likely need to throw the ball to keep pace with Oklahoma State's explosive passing attack.
Fortunately, Conner Weigman is likely to have all day to sit in the pocket and pick apart the Cowboys' secondary based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Houston: ranked 6th in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma State: ranked 64th in pressure rate generated
Even when quarterbacks hold the ball on extended dropbacks, the Cowboys haven't been great at creating pressure.
According to Pro Football Focus, Oklahoma State ranks 79th in pressure rate generated on dropbacks lasting 2.5 seconds or longer.
In large part due to their inability to get after the quarterback, Oklahoma State ranks 106th in explosive pass rate allowed, giving up 20 or more yards on 11.4% of attempts.
So we should expect Weigman to have plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his standout receiver Amare Thomas in this expected shootout.
Final Thoughts on Houston vs. Oklahoma State Best Bets
Both offenses have the ability to move the ball through the air and generate big plays, so let's take the over at 62.5 points.
There's some risk in Houston trying to slow the game down with its rushing attack, but Oklahoma State's fast-paced style and ability to generate explosive plays can probably negate those efforts and force the Cougars into a shootout.
