Player Matchups To Exploit: Week 10

In advance of Sunday’s games, I wanted to isolate specific advantageous matchups that could be interesting from a fantasy and prop perspective. 

Running Backs

 

Devin Singletary

 

• I gave out Singletary as a good matchup here last week and he paid off big with 140 total yards and a TD.
• He has another good matchup Sunday against the Browns. Cleveland is 30th in yards per carry allowed even though they’ve faced the seventh-easiest schedule of run offenses in the NFL.
• The Browns rank 21st in DVOA run defense and have allowed the fifth-highest percentage of explosive runs in the NFL. Singletary is No. 1 in the NFL in explosive run percentage at 25%.
• A big reason why I liked the Bills and Singletary last week was that they rank third in Adjusted Line Yards on offense, per Football Outsiders, and this week the Browns rank 26th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed. The Bills should have a good advantage in the trenches.
• Singletary should also perform well in the passing game. He has received 10 targets, with 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD the last two games. The Browns have struggled to defend the screen game for a number of years and this year have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt to RBs at 7.8.
• Although it’s a limited sample of only 40 carries, Singletary ranks first in DVOA among all RBs. His DVOA is more than double the second-ranked RB, Chase Edmonds, among RBs with at least 40 carries.

 

Nick Chubb

 

• I am going right back to the Bills/Browns game for another RB in Nick Chubb.
• The Browns need to rely on Chubb more than they have and they will get to face a Bills rush D that ranks 10th best at success rate in the run game but have given up tons of explosive runs. They have allowed the third-highest percentage of explosive run plays in the NFL and Chubb is tied for third-most explosive runs at 20. The Bills are 27th in open field yards allowed.
• The Bills have allowed the third-highest percentage of explosive runs while only facing one team ranked in the top 12 in explosive run percentage, the Giants in Week 2. In that game, Saquon Barkley produced four explosive runs out of 18 carries and ended up rushing for 107 yards (5.9 ypc).
• Understanding that Kareem Hunt is coming off suspension, I would expect Hunt to take over Dontrell Hilliard’s role on third downs and maybe he takes away a few carries from Chubb but not enough to totally affect the type of upside he has in this game.

 

Aaron Jones

 

• After a relatively quiet game against the Chargers, Jones is in a good spot on Sunday against the Panthers.
• After producing an epic 226-yard 2 TD game against KC, Jones crashed back down to earth last week against the Chargers. He caught 1 pass for minus-1 yard and ran it only eight times for 30 yards. I think you chalk up that entire performance by the Packers offense as one of those games.
• Jones gets to face a Panthers defense that is 23rd in run success rate defense and have allowed the second-highest percentage of explosive runs in the NFL. Just two weeks ago, the Niners gashed this Carolina defense for 232 yards and multiple 40+ yard runs.
• Carolina ranks dead last in DVOA run defense and in a cold Lambeau field, footing may be an issue and could give Jones and even bigger advantage.

 

David Montgomery

 

• There is no better way to beat the Lions than on the ground and no better way to keep the ball away from Mitch Trubisky.
• Detroit has been getting gashed on the ground this season, ranking 26th in success rate run defense and 29th in adjusted line yards allowed.
• Montgomery has finally been given the keys and has run 41 times for 175 yards and three TDs the last two games.
• As the weather turns in the Midwest, I expect to see Montgomery gain a bigger role down the stretch and this game Sunday could end up being very similar to the Chargers game two weeks ago for Montgomery.

Tight Ends

 

Jack Doyle

• It’s always hit or miss with the Colts TEs, but this should be a good matchup against the Miami defense. 
• Miami has allowed the fourth-highest target share to TEs against what their opposing offenses target on average and are sixth-in yards per attempt allowed against opposing TE averages. 
• Miami has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt to TEs against opposing offensive TEs that on average have put up 7.6 YPA.
• Doyle has faced a bunch of defenses that are stout against TEs. He has faced 3 opponents who rank in the top 6 in fewest yards per attempt allowed and 7 opponents who rank in the top 15 in fewest yards per attempt allowed to TEs. 
• In two games this season T.Y. Hilton has missed, Doyle has received 12 total targets and caught 7 for 44 yards and a TD. Last year in the two games that Hilton missed, the TEs on the Colts received a 29% target share. In two games he missed this season, Colts TEs have received 26% of the targets.

 

 

T.J. Hockenson

• Hockenson has had an inconsistent season but hopes to have a big game against the Bears. I try and find some matchups for guys who may be undervalued either in the prop market or offer some good daily fantasy value.
• As good as the Bears have been on defense this year, they have been susceptible to TEs. The Bears have allowed the third-most yards per game to TEs and rank dead last in success rate allowed. The Bears have allowed the sixth-highest target share to TEs, mainly because teams just refuse to throw to WRs against the Bears secondary.
• Hockenson has faced three teams that are in the bottom 10 in yards per game allowed to TEs in the Chiefs, Vikings, and Cardinals. In those three games, Hockenson has averaged 4 receptions for 63 yards and has received 17 targets in those games. He has also scored 2 TDs on the season and both came in games against those teams that struggle against TEs. He has caught at least 3 passes for 27 yards against each of those teams.

 

Wide Receiver

 

Jakeem Grant

 

• I am taking a shot in the dark here on Grant. After Preston Williams went down with an injury late in the game last week, Grant was targeted on three of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s eight targets in the fourth quarter.
• Grant is known for his tremendous speed and against a Colts defense that ranks 21st defending the deep ball he may be able to break one and in a low price on DFS sites he is worth a flier

 

Ted Ginn Jr.

 

• This is one of those spots where Ginn only needs one deep TD to clear all his props and DFS value.
• The Saints are going up against the 32nd ranked pass defense in success rate and 31st in DVOA pass defense in the Falcons.
• Ginn should prosper even further in going up against a pass defense that ranks 28th in defending the deep ball.
• Nobody can stop Michael Thomas but with Atlanta’s number one CB in Desmond Trufant shadowing Thomas, Ginn may receive a couple extra targets.
• To add to this, Atlanta’s defense has become a pass funnel defense as their run defense ranks 10th in DVOA, so I expect Brees to take shots early and often.

 

Jamison Crowder

• Crowder has been Sam Darnold’s favorite target this season, receiving 45 targets in five games. He has caught 35 passes for 329 yards.
• Crowder gets to face the Giants this week who rank 27th in DVOA pass defense and the Giants have struggled in the slot between Grant Haley and rookie Corey Ballentine, who seemingly replaced him in the starting lineup this past Monday night.
• Haley has allowed the second most YAC yards from the slot and Crowder is 15th in the NFL among all WRs in YAC yards.

 

 

Chris Godwin

• Godwin has been a monster this season and gets to go up against the Cardinals 31st ranked pass defense in success rate.
• Godwin operates from the slot 27% of the time and when he is in the slot, he will be going up against Tramaine Brock, who rates eighth-worst in passer rating allowed.
• Godwin has faced two opponents three times who have slot CBs in the bottom 11 in passer rating, two games against the Ross Cockrell of the Panthers and one game against P.J. Williams and the Saints. Godwin produced 25 receptions for 397 yards and 3 TDs in those games.
• With an expectation that Patrick Peterson will shadow Mike Evans, look for Godwin to be the main target for Jameis Winston.