We cashed in on two-of-three picks last weekend, failing only to hit on our longshot touchdown prediction. Here are three more prop lines to take advantage of this weekend…
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JA’MARR CHASE RECEIVING YARDS
- Pass-heavy game plan
- Bengals target distribution
- SIS Projection: 94 receiving yards
The Bengals will look to take a big next step in their playoff run when they face the top-seeded Titans this weekend.
- 76.5 receiving yards on BetMGM (-115)
All indications point to the Bengals coming out with a pass-heavy attack on Saturday. Their three highest single-game neutral pass rates have come in the last three games played with their starters. On the other side of the equation, teams have looked to attack the Titans through the air this season, resulting in the second-highest neutral pass rate against (66%).
Highest Neutral Pass Rate Against (2021)
Meanwhile, the bulk of the damage against the Titans’ secondary has been inflicted by wide receivers — they’ve allowed the second-most yards to opposing WRs (189 per game). This is a welcome sign for the Bengals who target their wide receivers on 64% of their passes (second-highest rate in the league).
The scheme matchup is also enticing for Chase, who will be running into a Titans secondary that leans heavily on Cover 1 and Cover 3. Since Week 14, Chase leads all Bengals receivers with 27 targets against those two coverage types, while none of his teammates have reached double-digits.
This all adds up to a high probability that it’s a busy day for the star rookie receiver who has been unguardable down the stretch with 116, 226, and 125 receiving yards, respectively, in his last three full games.
Chase’s usage has put him squarely in the mix when comparing the impressive list of elite receivers who will take the field this weekend. In terms of targeted route percentage for remaining playoff receivers, Chase (27%) trails only A.J. Brown (35%), Davante Adams (34%), and Cooper Kupp (33%) over the last five weeks.
Additional tips: Chase has emerged as the alpha receiver in a high-powered Bengals offense. Add in the matchup factors and you get a prime spot for Chase to rack up targets and yards. Should the line move up, play it as high as 79.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR ELIJAH MITCHELL RUSHING YARDS
- Significant usage
- Friendly matchup
- SIS Projection: 89 rushing yards
The 49ers are the biggest longshot of the weekend but have shown they can overcome the odds after last week’s upset of the Cowboys brought them to a 3-1 record as underdogs this season.
- 81.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Elijah Mitchell has taken full control of the running back job in San Francisco. He’s handled 69 carries over the last two games while ceding only one to his RB peers. Deebo Samuel has continued to get looks in the backfield, but it has still left room for Mitchell to pile up 23 carries per game over the last three contests.
The unheralded rookie has emerged as one of the most effective running backs in the league this season, ranking fifth in yards per carry among 19 RBs with 200+ attempts. If continues at his pace—23 carries and 4.5 yards per attempt—that would put Mitchell on track to eclipse the 100-yard mark, well beyond what’s required to beat his prop line.
Stopping the run is the main weakness for a Green Bay defense that ranked 28th in Run Defense Points Saved. Other advanced metrics, such as their 55% rushing success rate allowed (3rd-worst) and 15% explosive rush rate allowed (fifth-worst), also shed additional light on their inability to defend the ground game.
Highest Rushing Success Rate Allowed (2021)
|TEAM||RUSHING SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED|
The 49ers enter with the league’s third-highest neutral run rate (47%). They would be wise to continue this trend if they want to keep the potent Packers’ offense on the sidelines and take pressure off Jimmy Garoppolo’s injured shoulder.
Additional tips: This number has already climbed up from the opening line of 76.5, which is a positive sign for Mitchell. If it continues to rise, we would recommend playing it up to 82.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR GABRIEL DAVIS RECEIVING YARDS
- Recent usage spike
- Prop line remains too low
- SIS Projection: 45 receiving yards
Buffalo travels to Kansas City after an unblemished offensive performance last week against New England. The Bills will need a similar output in order to take down the Chiefs and avenge last year’s playoff loss.
- 30.5 receiving yards on BetMGM (-115)
We cashed in with this Gabriel Davis bet over last week and are bringing it back with similar rationale but even more confidence.
The biggest concern around this wager last week was the uncertainty of whether Davis’s role would diminish with the return of Emmanuel Sanders. That was alleviated when Davis played the most WR snaps and managed to hit the over despite the offense playing most of the game in cruise control.
Bills WR Snaps Played Leaders (Wild Card, 2021)
Buffalo will likely need to bring their full arsenal for the entire 60 minutes if they want to take down the defending AFC champs on Sunday. Buffalo is the league’s most pass-heavy offense in neutral game scenarios (71%), which means we should see plenty more passing than the 25 attempts we saw last week.
Over his past four games, Davis has accumulated a 21% target share, trailing only Stefon Diggs as the top dog in the Bills’ aerial attack. Davis has gone over 30 receiving yards in all five games since he saw his playing time spike back in Week 14.
As we highlighted last week, Davis has quietly emerged as a big play receiver who can take down all or most of the necessary yardage to cover with a single catch. Davis has five catches of 25+ yards and leads all receivers at converting targets into explosive plays (20+ yard gains). He only needed two catches to rack up 41 yards last week.
Additional tips: Davis has gone over this week’s prop total in each of his last seven games, including several prior to his increase in playing time. Davis is tied for second on the team in end zone targets since Week 14, so if you’re feeling bold you can parlay the Davis receiving yards over and anytime touchdown for +400 odds on BetMGM.