We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 10 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 14-10
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR PATRICK MAHOMES INTERCEPTIONS IN WEEK 10
- Mahomes under pressure
- Raiders defense matches up well
Betting on Patrick Mahomes to fail never used to be a consideration. The options were only to get with him or get out of the way. Halfway through the season, Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions and opened up the door to doubters.
- 0.5 interceptions on BetMGM (-110)
Last week’s win vs Green Bay was the first game without a Mahomes INT since Week 1. With Jordan Love stumbling through the game on the other side, the Chiefs’ offense was able to coast to a comfortable yet unimpressive victory.
This week should present a greater challenge as the Chiefs travel to face division-rival Las Vegas.
The Raiders rank third in pressure rate (37%) and play 77% zone coverage, both characteristics that have troubled the former MVP this season. The Raiders pressure rate is even more impressive when you consider they blitz less than any team in the league, freeing up extra defenders to help in coverage.
Highest Pressure Rate Generated (2021)
| TEAM | PRESSURE RATE |
|---|---|
| Rams | 40% |
| Dolphins | 38% |
| Raiders | 37% |
Mahomes faced a season-low six pressures last week, a helpful factor to his clean performance. The Raiders defense has tallied double-digit pressures in every game but one, with the lone outlier coming when they pressured Chicago on nine of their 23 dropbacks.
Mahomes has averaged an interception every 36 passes this season. That number drops to one every 15 attempts when pressured to go along with a league-high seven interceptions against zone coverage.
Additional tips: The -110 odds are favorable here compared to where they’ve been for Mahomes INT props in recent weeks. Bet the odds to -115 and consider pairing it with Raiders plus the spread.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR MIKE WHITE LONGEST COMPLETION IN WEEK 10
- White focused underneath
- Bills deep ball coverage
Mike White was off to another sharp start against Indianapolis last week prior to leaving with an injured hand. The folk hero QB will have his toughest assignment yet when he takes on the Bills No. 1 defense.
- 32.5 longest pass completion on BetMGM (-110)
White has helped rejuvenate a Jets offense that had only exceeded 20 points in one game prior to his arrival in the huddle. In the last two games, with the help of Josh Johnson, they’ve hung 34 and 30, and White has led all QBs with a 62% Positive Play Rate over that span.
He deserves the praise he’s getting, but it’s been the underneath game driving his success. Over the last two weeks, his 5.0-yard average throw depth ranks second lowest only to Daniel Jones (3.7).
White has been succeeding without the deep ball, so he has only summoned it once.
Mike White Pass Attempts by Depth (2021)
| THROW DEPTH (YARDS) | ATTEMPTS |
|---|---|
| 0-9 | 43 |
| 10-19 | 12 |
| 20+ | 1 |
This works out well for White, because deep balls and the Bills secondary don’t mix.
Buffalo has allowed just four deep ball completions (equivalent to one every other game) on 13 attempts — both numbers that are nearly half that of the next lowest team.
The Jets will likely rely on yards after the catch to manufacture a long play. This also seems like a longshot considering crafty veteran Jamison Crowder leads their WR/TE in yards after catch, but ranks just 73rd in the league.
In total, the Bills have allowed just three passing plays of longer than 32 yards this season.
Additional tips: This number, 32.5 yards, is already on the low end as far as these props go. Don’t chase the number any lower, but feel confident taking the odds as far as -120.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR JALEN HURTS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 10
- Eagles leaning on the run game
- Broncos defensive scheme
The Eagles travel to Denver for a battle with the 5-4 Broncos where Jalen Hurts will be lining up against one of the league’s best pass defenses.
- 198.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-105)
To the dismay of their fans, Philadelphia started the season with a mysteriously pass-heavy offense. Through the first six games, only three teams were averaging fewer rushing attempts per game.
They’ve flipped the script over the last three weeks, turning in the lowest neutral pass rate over that span (35%), culminating with a 17 pass, 39 rush play distribution in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
After Hurts eclipsed the 200 passing yard mark in three of his first four games, he’s managed to do so just once in his last five contests.
Sunday’s matchup should be a recipe for another run-heavy game plan as the Eagles try to limit their shaky QB’s exposure to a tricky pass defense.
Denver’s defense has played the highest rate of man coverage in the league and allowed the lowest completion percentage to opposing QBs. Through the first 13 starts of his career, Hurts has demonstrated suboptimal coverage splits against man.
Jalen Hurts Coverage Splits (2020-21)
| COVERAGE TYPE | COMPLETION% | YARDS/ATT |
|---|---|---|
| MAN | 43% | 5.9 |
| ZONE | 61% | 8.2 |
The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been held back by their bottom-five pressure rate. Most QBs would see a low pressure rate as a favorable stat, but it remains to be seen how Hurts will react to the tight-coverage environment.
Additional tips: Expect a low completion percentage and the Eagles to run the ball often, a combination that favors the under on Hurts passing props. Take the odds up to -120 at the current number; if the line moves, take it down to 196.5.
