We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 11 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 16-11
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR CARSON WENTZ PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 11
- Colts slow pace
- Bills top pass defense
- Bad weather
Carson Wentz and the Colts are in pursuit of their third straight win but will have a difficult task ahead of them when they travel up north to take on the Bills in potentially inclement weather.
- 227.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
The Colts are at their best when they’re able to ride Jonathan Taylor to victory, and their prized back should be the focal point of Sunday’s game plan for several reasons…
First, the Colts are taking on the top-rated Bills pass defense that has allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap (5.1), but ranks middle of the pack in terms of Run Defense Points Saved.
Fewest Yards Per Coverage Snap Allowed (2021)
|TEAM||YARDS PER COVERAGE SNAP ALLOWED|
Second, emphasizing time of possession will be especially key to victory this week. Indianapolis is accustomed to doing this, as they rank as the slowest offense in neutral game situations. Maximizing their time with the ball will limit their exposure to an aggressive and dangerous Bills offense. Buffalo ranks first in neutral pass rate (73%), while the Colts are dead last in Passing Success Rate Allowed and Pass Coverage Points Saved.
Third, the weather forecast is showing a greater than 80% chance of rain through the duration of the game. This should provide further motivation for the Colts to run the ball and limit their vertical passing game when they do air it out.
Additional tips: As we’ve featured often in the past, the under for longest completion against the Bills is in play again. Wentz ranks in the top-10 of deep pass attempts, which kept this from being the featured play here, but the poor weather brings it back to the forefront. Take the under on 34.5 yards longest pass completion for Wentz and feel comfortable taking his passing yards prop down to 224.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JIMMY GAROPPOLO PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 11
- Jimmy G is on top of his game
- Jaguars pass defense struggles
This is a low-key difficult spot for the 49ers as they head east for a 1pm start after a big primetime win against the division rival Rams. Fortunately it’s against the 2-7 Jaguars, and allowing them to hang around in this game could actually be favorable for this prop.
- 250.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
The 49ers are playing at a high level right now, as they look to make it three wins in their last four games and stay in the thick of a wide-open NFC playoff race.
A big reason for their hot streak has been the play of Jimmy Garoppolo, who has thrown for the fourth-most yards over the last three weeks while averaging a league-high 9.5 yards per attempt over that span.
Most Passing Yards Per Attempt (Weeks 8-10)
|PLAYER||YARDS PER ATTEMPT|
Trying to stop Garoppolo will be a Jaguars defense that ranks as a bottom-five unit according to Total Points. A key stat behind their struggles is their league-high 91% deserved catch rate allowed to their opponents (the number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed). This has contributed to their 7.2 yards per coverage snap allowed (fifth-worst).
Additional tips: If the number moves, take it as far as 252.5. It may seem counterintuitive but Jaguars +6.5 is appealing here due to the circumstances we described in the intro. Pairing these two bets could actually be a correlated play if the 49ers need to throw more than expected in order to secure a win. Also consider Deebo Samuel over 5.5 rushing yards on BetMGM. He’s coming off a five carry game and could exceed this mark with a single handoff.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR TUA TAGOVAILOA INTERCEPTIONS IN WEEK 11
- Jets defensive indicators
- Tua’s clean pocket ball security
You’ll probably need extra motivation to tune in for the Dolphins vs Jets game on Sunday, and we’re here to help with a high-probability prop to target.
- 0.5 interceptions on BetMGM (-110)
The Jets defense got off to a respectable start to the season, ranking inside the top-10 in terms of Points Saved through the first five weeks. However, they’ve plummeted to 31st in the five weeks since. One of the biggest factors behind their decline has been a dramatically lower pressure rate on opposing QBs.
Jets Defense, Pressure Rate Splits, Weeks 1-5 vs 6-10
On the back end of pass plays, the Jets secondary isn’t putting themselves in position to intercept passes. They’ve picked off just one pass to go along with zero dropped interceptions. This combined total of one is four fewer than any other team in the league.
As for Tua, throwing from a clean pocket has been the key to not turning the ball over.
It’s not rare for QBs to perform much better with room to throw, but Tagovailoa has taken it to the extreme this season. He’s been on-target with 85% of his passes from a clean pocket and thrown just one interception on 124 attempts. Meanwhile, he’s been picked four times on 45 pressured attempts and seen his on-target rate dip below 50%.
Additional tips: Tua hasn’t done a great job keeping passes out of harm’s way this season, but the matchup factors point in his favor here. You can feel confident taking the under at -110, which is essentially a coin flip as to whether he’ll throw a pick. Don’t chase it past -115, though, as you don’t want to pay a premium when all it takes is one errant throw to sink the bet.