We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 12 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 17-12
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR KIRK COUSINS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 12
- 49ers stingy secondary
- Scheme matchup
- SIS Projection: 237 passing yards
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings (5-5) head west for a showdown with the 49ers (5-5) in a critical matchup for both teams’ playoff hopes.
- 271.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-110)
San Francisco has been one of the most difficult teams to throw against this season, demonstrated by their 41% pass success rate allowed (third-best).
Opponents have opted to pass against them at the league’s lowest rate in neutral situations (53%), and have only cleared the 270 passing yard mark in 2-of-10 games this season.
Lowest Pass Success Rate Allowed (2021)
| TEAM | PASS SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED |
|---|---|
| Panthers | 38% |
| Bills | 38% |
| 49ers | 41% |
The 49ers play one of the most zone-heavy schemes in the league (71% zone). Cousins hasn’t been poor against zone but has been elite against man coverage over the past three seasons, a strength he won’t be able to leverage much on Sunday.
Additional tips: The SIS projections call for Cousins to land squarely below the line set by BetMGM. Playing this line if it moves down, comfortably going as low as 261.5. Also, consider taking Cousins over 0.5 INTs. Over the past three seasons, Cousins has thrown 37 TD/0 INT vs man, but 36 TD/16 INT vs zone.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASS COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 12
- Quick drops and short passing game
- Bengals poor at breaking up passes
- SIS Projection: 25.5 pass completions
This contest features two AFC division rivals who are also both squarely on the playoff bubble. Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh handily in Week 3, but Mike Tomlin exposed a plan of attack against the Bengals defense that bodes well for this prop.
- 23.5 passing completions on BetMGM (+100)
Earlier this season, Ben Roethlisberger completed 38 passes in a 24-10 loss to the Bengals – his highest single-game total since 2018.
In the later stages of Roethlisberger’s career, the Steelers offense has shifted to a quick-strike passing attack that features short drops and quick releases. They took that to an extreme in Week 3 when Roethlisberger used a three-step drop on 44-of-his-58 attempts, the most in a game by any QB this season by 14, and Big Ben’s career-high by an even wider margin.
While they didn’t win the game, or come particularly close, this should be a part of their game plan worth revisiting on Sunday as they try to expose a weakness in the Bengals’ secondary. Cincinnati’s defense ranks middle of the pack in terms of Yards per Coverage Snap and Pass Success Rate Allowed, but drilling deeper reveals they struggle defending short passes.
The Bengals rank last with a 97% deserved catch rate allowed on throws traveling 5-or-fewer air yards. On 184 catchable balls thrown this distance, 163 have been completed, to go along with only two passes defensed.
Highest Deserved Catch Rate Allowed on Short Passes (2021)
| TEAM | DESERVED CATCH RATE* |
|---|---|
| Bengals | 97% |
| Chargers | 96% |
| Raiders | 96% |
*Deserved Catch Rate: The number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed
Additional tips: Don’t chase this line if the number moves any higher than 23.5, but play the odds as far as -115. If the Steelers use the same approach as Week 3, it should correlate with the over on receptions props for their pass-catchers. A couple attractive lines are Najee Harris over 4.5 and Dionte Johnson over 6.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR TOM BRADY PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 12
- Colts ball control offense
- Colts scheme to limit big plays
- SIS Projection: 294 passing yards
The Colts have won three in a row to emerge as a contender in a wide-open AFC, but they’ll have their hands full on Sunday when they welcome in Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs.
- 315.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Last week we successfully highlighted why the Colts’ playing style on offense was conducive to the under for Carson Wentz passing yards. It’s relevant here, too – Indianapolis runs their offense at the slowest neutral pace in the league and is one of the few teams to feature their rushing attack with as much prominence.
Slowest Neutral Pace, per Football Outsiders (2021)
| TEAM | Seconds per Play |
|---|---|
| Colts | 33.8 |
| Bengals | 33.5 |
| Broncos | 33.2 |
Jonathan Taylor is coming off a dominant five touchdown performance but should find his job more difficult on Sunday against a Tampa Bay front that has forced most of their opponents to abandon the run. The Bucs’ defense has seen a remarkably low 29% of opponents’ plays come via the ground game in neutral situations.
This will be a compelling strength-on-strength matchup that we don’t expect to see the Colts cave on. This is also a long-winded way of saying we expect the Colts to play their game and try to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands.
To go along with that, the Colts defense has only allowed 2-of-11 opposing QBs to go over the 280-yard mark and they rank top-10 in limiting explosive passing plays.
Additional tips: Brady and the Bucs offense seem able to move the ball at will, so don’t chase this line past 313.5, but have faith in this Colts defense in a big matchup.
