We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 14 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 22-14
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR CAM NEWTON PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 14
- Bounceback spot for Cam
- Low prop total due to disastrous last game
- SIS Projection: 276 passing yards
The mediocre second tier in the NFC has left the door open for both the Panthers and the Falcons to stay in the playoff hunt. It’s a game with plenty of motivation where the winner could find themselves in playoff position by week’s end.
- 189.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Cam Newton returned to the Panthers and flashed signs of his peak skill set, only to then turn in one of the worst performances of the season against the Dolphins in Week 12. He was benched after completing just 5-of-21 passes with an appalling 41% on-target throw rate.
Newton was constantly under pressure against a furious, surging Dolphins defense that owns the league’s top pressure rate. He was under pressure on half his dropbacks and only managed to complete 1-of-11 pressured attempts.
On Sunday, Newton will be facing a Falcons defense that finds itself on the opposite end of the pressure spectrum (24%, last). This should provide Cam with the time he needs (and didn’t have against Miami) to complete passes and gain confidence to avoid going off the rails like he did in Week 12.
Lowest Pressure Rate Generated (2021)
Newton and the Panthers have had the bye week to fire their OC, work on their flaws, and get their minds right for a playoff push. An extra week of preparation should help to further dissect the flaws of a Falcons defense that ranks near the bottom in Passing Success Rate Against (50%, 27th).
Additional tips: There is a massive separation between the SIS projection and the line posted by BetMGM. It could fall in between and still safely cover. Bet the number up to 194.5 if it moves up. Consider overs for Matt Ryan as well as these two teams look to pull out all the stops for a victory here.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR TOM BRADY PASSING COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 14
- Stingy Bills pass defense
- Astronomical prop line
- SIS Projection: 25 pass completions
One of the most exciting matchups of the season is on tap for Week 14 as Tom Brady and the defending champs host a Bills team that has realistic championship aspirations.
- 27.5 pass completions on BetMGM (-105)
Brady has remarkably been playing the best football of his career, putting him on a trajectory to win his sixth MVP at age 44.
The Bucs came out guns blazing against the Falcons last week, with Brady firing off 51 attempts and 38 completions when all was said and done. We could be set up for a high-octane passing display on Sunday as both the Bucs and Bills rank top-three in neutral pass rate.
The Bills are coming off an unconventional loss to the Patriots on Monday night in which Mac Jones attempted only three passes. As a result, the Bills’ secondary hasn’t yet been challenged since the loss of their top cornerback Tre’Davious White. At the same time, New England somewhat exposed the Bills’ run defense which could inspire a more balanced gameplan from the Bucs on Sunday.
Buffalo’s secondary has been elite to this point, with no shortage of credit due to the now-injured Tre’Davious White. They should still be a top unit even if his replacements can perform at replacement level. To date, Buffalo’s pass defense ranks first in Pass Success Rate Against (38%), fewest Yards per Coverage Snap Allowed (5.1), as well as fewest plays (5) and yards per drive (24) by their opponents.
Fewest Yards per Drive Allowed to Opponents (2021)
|TEAM||YARDS PER DRIVE|
The Bills also rank second in Pressure Rate Generated (39%), which could exploit one of Brady’s few weaknesses. At this stage of his career, Brady doesn’t deal with pressure, often throwing the ball away to live for another down. When he does throw a targeted pass, Brady’s on-target throw rate drops from 83% on-target rate in a clean pocket to just 50% when under pressure.
Additional tips: Brady has eclipsed this total quite a few times this season, but Buffalo has allowed an opposing QB to surpass 27 completions just once. It’s a battle of strengths where we’re betting the Bills will just be good enough to limit Brady from posting a monster stat line. Don’t chase the number if it moves lower than 27.5, but play the line to -115.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR TREVOR LAWRENCE PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 14
- Lawrence success against TEN in Week 5
- Titans defense not designed to exploit Lawrence
- SIS Projection: 251 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars will be playing for pride and experience as they travel to take on the division-leading Titans.
- 215.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Lawrence’s rookie season has been a bumpy ride, but the last five weeks of the season are a good opportunity to release the reins and let the first overall pick get as many reps as possible in preparation for next year.
One of Lawrence’s better performances came against the Titans back in Week 5 when he threw for 273 yards on a 70% completion rate. That’s a respectable passing yardage total and at the same time, just the ninth-best total posted against the Titans this season. Tennessee ranks 26th in passing yards allowed per game, and opponents have been inclined to throw against them (third-highest neutral pass rate against).
Evaluating Lawrence’s splits uncovers that the rookie has particularly struggled against pressure and the blitz this season. Fortunately, the Titans don’t rate particularly high in pressure rate generated (18th) or blitz rate (30th).
In their last matchup, the Jaguars did well to keep the pocket clean for Lawrence, resulting in his third-lowest pressure rate of the season.
Trevor Lawrence Lowest Single-Game Pressure Rates (2021)
As 8.5-point underdogs on the road, this game should produce plenty of passing situations as the Jaguars potentially play from behind.
Additional tips: Lawrence should only need to put together a functional game in order to reach his total, which is well within his ability. Play the line as high as 218.5 if it were to move.