We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 15 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 23-16
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR CARSON WENTZ PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 15
- Slow pace of play expected
- Patriots stingy defense
- SIS Projection: 212 passing yards
The first Saturday Night Football game of the season should be a treat as two of the best teams in the AFC square off. The Patriots fit the description as the current No. 1 seed, but the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives despite ranking seventh overall in terms of SIS’ Total Points metric.
- 226.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
It’s no secret that both of these teams love to run the ball. New England comes in with the league’s highest neutral run rate (50%), while Offensive Player of the Year candidate Jonathan Taylor leads all players in Rushing Points Earned by a wide margin.
As a result, these are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the league: Indianapolis ranks as the slowest in neutral game scenarios (33.6 seconds/play per Football Outsiders), while New England ranks 25th (32.4 sec/play).
The Patriots’ pass defense has arguably been the best in the league during their seven-game winning streak. Over that span, they’ve allowed the fewest Yards per Coverage Snap (4.7) and Passing Yards per Game (173).
Fewest Passing Yards per Game Allowed (Weeks 7-14, 2021)
|TEAM||PASSING YARDS PER GAME ALLOWED|
The Patriots also rank second with a 41% Pressure Rate Generated over that same span. Carson Wentz’s struggles with pressure last season were a big part of what jettisoned him from Philadelphia. He’s improved in that category but Bill Belichick should use the extra week of preparation to scheme up some tricks to send Wentz back to his old ways.
Additional tips: Wentz is averaging 188 passing yards per game in his last four, and 200 in his last seven games. The Colts have been intent to win by leaning heavily on their ground game. Add the tough Patriots secondary into the equation and things look favorable for this prop. Take it down to 224.5 if it were to move.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASS ATTEMPTS IN WEEK 15
- Steelers pass-happy offense
- Titans pass-friendly defense
- SIS Projection: 40 pass attempts
The Steelers’ playoff hopes are still alive despite their comeback falling short against the Vikings last Thursday. They’ll need a quality game from Big Ben in order to come out on top against the Titans and stay in the hunt.
- 35.5 passing attempts on DK Sportsbook (-110)
Despite the addition of Najee Harris and his flashes of brilliance, the Steelers haven’t been able to get a consistent run game going all season, ranking near the bottom in terms of Yards per Attempt, Hit at the Line%, and Positive Play Rate.
Teams have been reluctant to run against the Titans defense that’s held opponents to the second-fewest rushing yards per game. As a result, their opponents are passing the ball on 68% of all plays (second-most) and 66% of neutral scenarios (third-most).
Highest Pass Rate by Opposing Offenses (2021)
Titans opponents are averaging 38 attempts per game and Roethlisberger has gone over 40 attempts in three of the last four games. This all culminates to point in a high probability that the Steelers will be passing early and often on Sunday.
Additional tips: Based on the line leaning toward the under at this point (under 35.5 attempts is -120), it seems there’s a better chance it moves down as opposed to up. Wait until closer to game time to see if 34.5 comes up, but if not, ride with 35.5 and consider coupling it with over 23.5 completions.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR TAYSOM HILL PASS ATTEMPTS IN WEEK 15
- Saints are heavy underdogs
- Taysom Hill sneaky track record
- SIS Projection: 36 pass attempts
New Orleans is one of five teams currently tied for the final playoff spot in the NFC. They’ll need to pull off an improbable win in Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football in order to keep their hopes alive.
- 31.5 pass attempts on DK Sportsbook (-105)
The over on quarterback props (particularly pass attempts) has been a popular one in this column during the season. It makes sense to go back to the well here with a high spread (Bucs -11) and a relatively low prop line (31.5 attempts).
The prop line is low because Taysom Hill is viewed as a gadget QB, which is true to an extent, but he’s stacked up pass attempts when the situation calls for it. Hill is 4-2 as a starting QB, averaging 24 attempts in wins and 40 attempts in his two losses.
Taysom Hill Pass Attempts by Start (2021)
|Week 11, 2020||23||Win (24-9)|
|Week 12, 2020||16||Win (31-3)|
|Week 13, 2020||37||Win (21-16)|
|Week 14, 2020||38||Loss (24-21)|
|Week 13, 2021||41||Loss (27-17)|
|Week 14, 2021||21||Win (30-9)|
It’s worth revisiting the extent that opponents have abandoned the run against Tampa Bay. Opponents are only running the ball on 27% of plays in neutral game scenarios, resulting in just 21 rushing attempts per game compared to a league-high 41 passes on average.
When the Bucs played in New Orleans back in Week 8, the Saints won the game and still dropped back 45 times.
Additional tips: Signs point to the over here, but again, the sportsbook is suggesting otherwise with -130 odds on the under. Feel confident locking in the favorable odds at -105, or wait and see if the line moves down to 30.5 – both are smart plays.