We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 16 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 24-18
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR AARON RODGERS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 16
- Rodgers on a hot streak
- Advanced stats point to Browns secondary struggles
- SIS Projection: 276 passing yards
The Christmas schedule kicks off with the Packers hosting the Browns. Both teams have a lot on the line: Green Bay is in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage, while Cleveland needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
- 259.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-110)
Aaron Rodgers has been playing his best football of the season and now finds himself as the front-runner for MVP. Over his last five games, Rodgers leads all QBs with 9.1 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) and has gone over 260 yards in all of them.
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Leaders (Weeks 10-15, 2021)
| TEAM | ANY/A |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 9.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 8.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7.9 |
Matt LaFleur has been dialing up aggressive play-calling for the Packers offense; Green Bay has passed on 63% of plays in neutral game scenarios, which is good for the 6th-highest in the league.
Meanwhile, the Browns secondary appears to be an average secondary according to box score stats like Completion% (14th) and Yards per Attempt (17th). However, if you consult more advanced stats like Total Points Saved and Deserved Catch Rate, you’ll find you’re looking at a bottom-10 unit.
Cleveland ranks 23rd in Points Saved, and over their last five games they have allowed the league’s worst Deserved Catch Rate (93%), which is a measure of a defense’s ability to break up passes.
Additional tips: Rodgers and the Packers are on a mission for home-field advantage and seem inclined to pass their way to the top. This looks like a solid bet based on the recent track record of both the offense and the defense. Should the number move, play it up to 261.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR JOE BURROW PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 16
- Bengals featuring the run game
- Banged up Cincinnati offensive line
- SIS Projection: 251 passing yards
The Ravens and Bengals face off in what is unofficially a “win and in” contest. Both of these teams will be less than full strength on Sunday, suffering from injuries and COVID cases.
- 269.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
After unleashing Joe Burrow in Weeks 5-9, the Bengals have pulled back the reins in their last five games. The previous five-game window had featured a 62% pass rate, but since their bye week, Cincinnati has passed on a below league-average 54% of their plays.
As a result, Burrow has gone under this week’s passing prop line (269.5 yards) in 3 of those 5 contests. With Lamar Jackson unlikely to suit up, that may mean the Bengals are less likely to need a big passing performance from Burrow.
The Bengals will be without both starters on the right side of their offensive line for the second consecutive week. Cincinnati’s right guard, Jackson Carman, has been out since Week 8, while right tackle Riley Reiff went on the IR after Week 14.
As expected, the team has not performed as well without them, highlighted by a season-high 45% pressure rate allowed last week.
Bengals On/Off Pressure Splits (2021)
| PLAYER | PRESSURE RATE ALLOWED (ON) | PRESSURE RATE ALLOWED (OFF) |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Carman | 30% | 34% |
| Riley Reiff | 30% | 40% |
Additional tips: Burrow went off for 416 yards against the Ravens back in Week 7, but as we’ve highlighted, the circumstances have changed a bit since. Keep an eye on the weather forecasts that are currently projecting a 20% chance of rain during the game. If rain becomes more likely than not, go ahead and take this line down to 265.5. Otherwise, don’t go lower than the current line.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR DREW LOCK PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 16
- Past performances point to the over
- Raiders defensive philosophy
- SIS Projection: 237 passing yards
The playoff fate of the 7-7 Broncos is now in the hands of their former starter, Drew Lock. The gunslinger has not played particularly well in his limited opportunities this season, but his track record as a starter looks promising for hitting the over on this prop.
- 207.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-110)
Lock has only appeared in three games and thrown 40 passes this season, all in relief of Teddy Bridgewater. But in 13 games as a starter, Lock has gone over this week’s prop line (207.5) in 10 of them. Among those starts includes two against Las Vegas last season where Lock put up 257 and 339 passing yards.
On the other side, the Raiders blitz at the league’s lowest rate (10%), which will hopefully make decisions at the line of scrimmage less daunting for Lock.
Lock’s accuracy splits are favorable when the opponent rushes 4-or-fewer defenders. Last season, he registered a 77% on-target rate without a blitz compared to 64% when the defense sent extra rushers (lowest in the league).
Lowest Blitz Rate (2021)
| TEAM | BLITZ RATE |
|---|---|
| RAIDERS | 10% |
| TEXANS | 16% |
| TITANS | 15% |
Additional tips: SIS projects Lock to pass for 30 more yards than BetMGM. It’s a low yardage total that Lock has surpassed in almost 80% of his starts. The Broncos should try to lean on their run game, but even if that’s the case, this is an attainable number for Lock. If it moves up, bet it as far as 212.5.
