We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 17 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.

Season Record: 24-18

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2022 Playoffs record: 26-10 (72%)
Super Bowl record: 25-10 (71%)

WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR DAK PRESCOTT PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 17

  • Fast pace, high expected total
  • Cardinals injuries
  • SIS Projection: 280 passing yards

Sunday’s schedule is highlighted by this contest featuring two NFC teams with championship aspirations who are heading in different directions. Dallas has won four straight while Arizona lost their last three and relinquished their division lead.

  • 278.5 passing yards on DK Sportsbook (-110) 

This game’s total of 52 is the highest on the board and with good reason. Both teams rank in the top-10 in points per game, with Dallas coming in at No. 1 (30.5 ppg).

Arizona is expected to be without its two starting outside cornerbacks this week, Robert Alford and Marco Wilson. It’s uncertain who will even be on the field for the depleted Cardinals secondary as they’re still scrambling to find free agents after FA signing Bashaud Breeland tested positive for COVID-19.

Arizona Cardinals Healthy Cornerbacks

PLAYERROSTERCOVER SNAPS (2021)
Byron MurphyActive459
Antonio HamiltonActive127
Isaiah JohnsonPractice Squad0
Nate BrooksPractice Squad0

This could be a field day for Dak Prescott who has averaged 337 passing yards per game in his last three home games.

Another factor in support of the cause is the fast pace that’s expected from both offenses. Both teams consistently play quicker than the league average in neutral-game scenarios and are both ranked inside the top-10 in plays per game.

Additional tips: We expect a fast-paced, high-scoring, and competitive affair, which lends itself to plenty of yards. SIS projects Prescott to only come in slightly over the prop line, so be cautious about chasing this line too far. We’d only recommend playing it at the current 278.5 yards or lower.

WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR TUA TAGOVAILOA PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 17

  • Pass-heavy gameplan
  • Titans vulnerable secondary
  • SIS Projection: 264 passing yards

The Dolphins have turned their season around in a historic fashion with their current seven-game winning streak. They still have two tough challenges ahead of them – at TEN this week, vs. NE next week – and they may need to win both in order to advance to the playoffs.

  • 240.5 passing yards on DK Sportsbook (-110) 

Miami’s impressive run has seen them win in all seven games won by a touchdown or more. The large margins of victory have contributed to Tua Tagovailoa going over 240 passing yards just twice in his six games played during that span.

That is unlikely to be the case on Sunday as Miami heads into Tennessee as 3.5-point underdogs. The Titans will try to lean on their ground game to control the clock, but Miami has shown they can stop the run (seventh-best rushing success rate against) and get their defense off the field (fourth-fewest plays allowed per drive).

When Miami has possession, the numbers suggest we should see a pass-heavy approach. Miami’s offense has thrown on 66% of neutral-game scenarios, while Tennessee’s defense has seen an identical pass rate against them – both third highest.

Highest Neutral Pass Rate on Offense (2021)

TEAMNEUTRAL PASS RATE
Bill71%
Buccaneers66%
Dolphins66%

Beyond that, Miami ranks dead last in Rushing Points Earned per 30 snaps, and Tennessee has demonstrated they can stop the run effectively (eighth-best in Run Defense Points Saved).

If Miami wants to come out with a win and keep their playoff hopes strong, they’ll likely need to take to the air early and often.

Additional tips: There’s a possibility for rain and wind in Tennessee on Sunday which could have a bearing on this line. We advise waiting until closer to kick-off to lock in this bet in hope that it moves down due to weather, or the conditions at game-time end up being clear. Even if the weather is poor, Tua’s short passing game should help minimize the impact.

WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR SAM DARNOLD INTERCEPTIONS IN WEEK 17

  • Darnold’s track record
  • Saints defensive philosophy
  • SIS Projection: 1.1 INTs

The Panthers are eliminated and have turned back to Sam Darnold in hopes he’ll prove himself worthy of bringing back next season. Meanwhile, the Saints still have an outside shot to reach the playoffs and will need their defense to step up down the stretch.

  • 0.5 interceptions on DK Sportsbook  (-185) 

Nobody is shocked to read that Darnold has a track record of throwing to the wrong team. To be exact, Darnold has thrown an INT in 28-of-48 games he’s played (58%).

Digging deeper reveals that Darnold has been more inaccurate and likely to throw an INT against Man Coverage. This week’s opponent, the Saints, play the league’s highest rate of man-to-man and deployed it 64% of the time in Week 2 against the Panthers – a game the Saints lost but managed to pick off Darnold once.

Sam Darnold Man/Zone Splits  (2018-21)

COVERAGE TYPEON-TARGET THROW RATEINT:ATT RATIO
Man64%1:27
Zone69%1:30

The Saints defense has stepped up the turnovers lately, intercepting a pass in five of their last six games, and has been particularly fierce at home with nine interceptions in seven games.

Additional tips: The odds are steep but all signs point to at least one Darnold INT. The current line, -185, implies a 65% chance of a Darnold INT. That’s as high as we’d be willing to go on this one.