We’re back following up an action-packed Week 1 where our QB prop recommendations went a crisp 3-0. Here are three props to consider for this week’s slate.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR DANIEL JONES PASS YARDS IN WEEK 2
- Low total
- Poor track record
- Washington’s stifling defense
The Giants and Washington Football Team have a quick turnaround with a Thursday Night Football showdown that will be critical for both teams’ divisional hopes. These two teams will look to grind out a win in what is currently the lowest projected total on the board (40.5 points).
- 233.5 pass yards on DraftKings (-115)
The passing yardage number for Jones may have ticked up slightly after he posted 267 yards in his season debut. Those that watched the game know it was a less-than-stellar performance by Jones who continued to look lost while completing just 22-of-37 attempts.
Looking back to last season, Jones eclipsed the 233.5 pass yard mark in only 5-of-14 games, including just three of his final 12 contests. On the flip-side of this matchup, Washington allowed opposing passers to surpass this total in just 7-of-16 affairs in 2020.
When these two have gone head-to-head during Jones’s career, the Giants QB has been held under 233.5 pass yards in 3-of-4 meetings (both games last season).
Jones is particularly mistake-prone when faced with pressure. Last season, 24% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in an interception or a sack (3rd-worst), and his on-target throw rate dropped from 80% to 64% with pressure.
Washington boasts a fierce defensive front that has given New York trouble in their recent matchups. In their two meetings last season, Jones faced pressure on 47% of his dropbacks, resulting in just 6.1 yards per attempt.
Chase Young gets the most fanfare on this WFT line but it was his counterpart, Montez Sweat, who led the NFL in quickest average snap-to-pressure time last season (per Sports Info Solutions tracking data).
Quickest Average Snap-to-Pressure Time (min 40 pressures)
|PLAYER||AVG SNAP-TO-PRESSURE (SEC)|
Additional tips: Take the under here as these teams will look to control time of possession and pull out an important win on short rest. Feel comfortable betting under 233.5 pass yards down to -120 or the total down to 230.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JAMEIS WINSTON ATTEMPTS IN WEEK 2
- Week 1 overreaction
- Sneaky difficult matchup
- Track record of eclipsing the mark
Nobody expected Jameis Winston and the Saints to put the beating on the Packers that they did in Week 1. The New Orleans defense forced three turnovers and set the offense up with an average starting position of their own 41-yard line. Due to the lopsided score and Winston’s ridiculous efficiency (25% TD rate), the Saints threw just 21 passes compared to 39 rushes.
Now the Saints travel to Carolina as favorites in their first road game of the season. The line currently sits at -4, which is up from -2.5 that sources suggested last week in the Week 2 lookahead lines. There are signs of an overreaction in the betting line and underlying factors that should cause New Orleans to need their passing game more in this contest.
- 31.5 attempts on DraftKings (+100)
This pass attempts total is currently the lowest on the board, another sign of overreacting to the Saints’ run-heavy box score in Week 1.
The Saints’ offense cleared the 31.5 attempts mark in 10-of-16 games last season, and the six unders came in wins with an average margin of victory of two touchdowns (14.5 points).
Expect this to be a closer affair, impacted by the Panthers’ track record of a zone-heavy defensive approach. Last season, Carolina played 80% zone coverage, the highest rate in the NFL.
Highest Zone Coverage Rate (Team Defense, 2020)
|TEAM||ZONE COVERAGE RATE|
Jameis Winston struggled mightily against zone coverage in his 2019 farewell season with the Buccaneers. Those struggles were highlighted by his 22 interceptions against zone – seven more than any other QB.
Additional tips: The Winston over 0.5 INT prop is also in play here but requires bettors to lay -150. We prefer to go with the lower odds and take the over on the generously low attempts total – play it to -115 but fade it beyond that number or if the line moves higher than 31.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET UNDER THE LONGEST PASS COMPLETION FOR CARSON WENTZ IN WEEK 2
- Wentz conservative indicators
- Lack of deep threats
- Elite Rams pass defense
Carson Wentz had a respectable Colts debut in Week 1 but fell short of securing a win. The road gets even tougher for Wentz on Sunday as he’ll be tasked with solving the Rams’ number one pass defense.
- 35.5 yard longest pass completion on DraftKings (-115)
Wentz’s disastrous 2020 season was well-documented and led the Eagles to ship away their once-prized QB for pennies on the dollar. His reckless play was at the root of his downfall – he ranked second-worst with a 22% Bust Rate last season (plays resulting in -1 EPA or worse).
Highest QB Bust Rate (2020)
The Colts will look to bring Wentz back to form with better protection and a lower-risk playing style. That was on display in Week 1 as Wentz threw his 38 attempts at an average depth of just 5.2 yards (third-lowest). In fact, while trailing for the entire second half, his average throw depth was even a tick lower at just 4.8 yards.
The Colts’ offense doesn’t figure to feature much vertical passing this season. Wentz completed a long pass of just 24 yards in Week 1 and attempted only two deep balls. With a lack of deep threats on the offense, he sent 15 of his pass attempts to his running backs (Hines 8, Taylor 7).
This all came against a Seahawks defense that finished last season near the middle-of-the-pack in most key pass defense metrics. The Rams will present a much greater challenge as the Colts look to move the football this weekend.
The Rams defense allowed zero explosive passes in Week 1 and is coming off a dominant 2020 season in which they specialized in wiping away deep passing. Featuring two of the league’s top cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams, the Rams secondary allowed an NFL-low 6% explosive pass rate and 4% of completions coming on deep balls last season.
Expect the Colts not to tempt fate with an aggressive game plan and these factors culminate in the Rams keeping the opposing pass game in check.
Additional tips: The yardage mark shouldn’t move on this bet, but the odds might – if they do, play it until -125.