After a successful 3-0 Week 4, we’re back with three more data-driven prop betting recommendations for this Sunday’s slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JACOBY BRISSETT PASS COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 5
- Dolphins high pass rate
- Buccaneers elite run defense
- Fast-paced offenses
The Dolphins fell to the Colts last week but Jacoby Brissett made a winner out of bettors who took our advice on his over 18.5 completions prop. The 1-3 Dolphins head to Tampa Bay to take on the defending champs and we’re going back to the well on Brissett completions.
- 22.5 pass completions on BetMGM (-125)
Sportsbooks may have gotten wise to the soft completions prop they set last week, just 18.5, raising Brissett’s number by four this weekend. We still see plenty of opportunity—as we discussed last week, the Dolphins are among the most pass-heavy offenses in the league (69% pass).
As one would expect, the Dolphins pass rate increases even further when they get behind—77% pass when trailing by 7+ points. This type of fate seems to be in the cards for Miami this weekend as they’ll be on the road as 10-point underdogs against the Super Bowl favorite.
A key factor to the increase we see on Brissett’s completions prop line is their opponent. Tampa Bay has allowed just 190 rushing yards (48/game) on a stifling 2.7 yards per carry. The Bucs are on pace to allow the fewest yards per carry for the third consecutive season, and opponents have adjusted their gameplan. Last week’s opponent, New England, dropped back to pass 44 times compared to just eight rush attempts (for -1 yard).
So far this season, here are the completion totals for QBs against Tampa Bay: 58, 46, 38, 40.
Highest Opponent Pass Rate (2021)
|TEAM||OPPONENT PASS RATE|
These two offenses are not afraid to push the pace: Tampa Bay runs a play every 25 seconds, the quickest in the league per Football Outsiders, while Miami ranks third.
In summary, this game features two fast-paced, pass-heavy offenses so we’re confident Brissett will be airing it out early and often.
Additional tips: As we pointed out, this number is noticeably higher than it was last week, so don’t chase it if it moves too far: 23.5 (-115) is what we’d advise as the cut-off.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET UNDER THE LONGEST PASS COMPLETION FOR MATT RYAN IN WEEK 5
- Conservative passing
- Track record in London
- WR depth concerns
We’re back on the London circuit after missing 2020 due to COVID. The Jets and Falcons will square off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday morning, so fire up your tea kettle and your BetMGM app.
- 37.5 yard longest pass completion on BetMGM (-120)
Matt Ryan is the second repeat performer from last week’s article — he found the end zone four times and easily cashed tickets for over 1.5 TD bettors. This week we’ll be betting against Ryan as we project his longest pass will be shorter than 38 yards.
Ryan has been extremely conservative with his passes this season. The Falcons QB has thrown eight deep balls on 159 attempts, completing just two, which registers as a league-low 5% deep ball rate. Among 32 QBs with 50+ attempts, Ryan has the lowest average throw depth at 5.9 yards (lowest by 0.7 yards).
Lowest Deep Ball Attempt Rate (2021)
|PLAYER||DEEP BALL RATE|
The recent historical numbers for London games support the under. No quarterback completed a pass longer than 37 yards in the four games played across the pond in 2019, including two at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The early-season trends for the Jets defense and Ryan provide additional support. Through four games, the Jets have only surrendered one pass that would trigger the over, while Ryan’s long completion by week is: 18, 24, 28, 42.
Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley, who has been targeted on 6-of-8 Ryan deep ball attempts, has been ruled out for Sunday’s game with a personal issue. Russell Gage, a lesser deep-threat, also missed Thursday’s practice with an injury. Without Ridley and Gage, the Falcons’ top WRs would be Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe.
Additional tips: Feel comfortable betting the under 37.5 long completion up to -125. The yardage on longest completion prop lines tend not to move, but if it does, play this down to 36.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR PATRICK MAHOMES TOUCHDOWNS IN WEEK 5
- High total
- Favorable odds
- Chiefs play-calling near the end zone
Bills vs Chiefs is the main attraction on this weekend’s slate and everybody including Vegas is expecting a shootout. These two teams combined for 62 points when they squared off in the AFC Championship earlier this year.
- 2.5 passing touchdowns on BetMGM (+105)
BetMGM has set the total at 56.5 and assigned the Chiefs with a team total of 29.5 points in a crucial game for their division title hopes. By that math, the Chiefs are expected to score four touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns through four weeks, an average of 3.5 TDs per game. Mahomes has thrown 3+ TDs in all four contests this season and sportsbooks are projecting their best offensive output of the season to come on Sunday.
The Chiefs have put the ball in the hands of their MVP quarterback near the goal line. Kansas City has dropped back to pass on 14-of-16 plays inside their opponent’s 10-yard-line this season.
Highest Pass Rate inside-the-10 (2021)
Despite all these factors in his favor, BetMGM still set the odds against Mahomes to throw 3+ TDs for the fifth consecutive week. We will happily take the +105 and get behind Mahomes to put on a show in primetime.
Additional tips: Take this line to -110. If your sportsbook allows single-game parlays, we encourage parlaying Mahomes over 2.5 TDs with a Chiefs win.