We’re back with more data-driven prop betting recommendations for the Week 6 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend, including a bonus pick for Monday Night Football.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR PATRICK MAHOMES TOUCHDOWNS IN WEEK 6
- WFT subpar pass defense
- Chiefs play-calling near the end zone
- Must-win game for KC
We were burned by this same bet last week as Patrick Mahomes only came through with two passing touchdowns, but we are doubling down on the future Hall of Famer to come through in the highest projected scoring game of the week.
- 2.5 passing touchdowns on BetMGM(-115)
Mahomes has a much softer matchup this week, going up against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in Expected Points surrendered in pass coverage. Washington has also allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (14), including four apiece to their last three opponents.
Most Expected Points Allowed in Pass Coverage (2021)
|TEAM||EXPECTED POINTS ALLOWED|
Despite not hitting last week’s prop, Mahomes still leads all QBs with 16 touchdown passes. Last week marked the first time this season he didn’t find the end zone at least three times.
The Chiefs continue to run their offense through Mahomes near the end zone. Kansas City has passed the ball on a league-high 73% of their plays inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, and Mahomes has connected for a touchdown on nine of his 16 passes.
The Chiefs’ TD distribution is heavily skewed toward Mahomes, who has thrown a touchdown on 16 of the team’s 19 offensive scores. Kansas City has the highest team total on the board at 31.5. For the Chiefs to approach or cover this number, Mahomes will need to account for three of the team’s four projected touchdowns.
Additional tips: If the odds move, play this to -130.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR TREVOR LAWRENCE PASS COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 6
- Low prop number
- Dolphins track record
- Fast-paced offenses
It’s been a difficult start to his career but Trevor Lawrence and the 0-5 Jaguars have a prime opportunity to get in the win column when they welcome the Miami Dolphins to London this weekend.
- 20.5 pass completions on BetMGM (+100)
The struggles have been real for Lawrence who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns to this point. There’s some cause for optimism if you look below the surface at Lawrence’s underlying pass numbers, in particular his accuracy.
Lawrence’s accuracy has ticked up each week after delivering a catchable ball on just 73% of his attempts through his first two games – 83%, 86%, 90% catchable pass rate, respectively for his last three games.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense has surrendered 24 completions per game, with four of five opponents clearing the 20-completion mark.
The pace numbers for these two offenses suggest that there should be plenty of plays, which translates to more opportunity for Lawrence to complete passes. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville is the fastest-paced offense, while Miami comes in at No. 3. On average, both teams run their plays over two seconds quicker than average.
Fastest Paced Teams (Seconds/Play, Football Outsiders 2021)
Additional tips: Feel comfortable betting the over 19.5 prop to -140 and if the number should increase, play it to 20.5. Also consider playing the over for Tua Tagovailoa on pass completions.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR JUSTIN FIELDS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 6
- Run-heavy tendency
- Slow pace
- Low projected total
Green Bay travels to Chicago for a matchup between the top two teams in the NFC North. BetMGM expects this to be a low-scoring contest, setting the total at 44. We’ll get into a few metrics that point to a slow-paced, grind-it-out affair.
- 201.5 passing yards on DraftKings (-115)
The line for this game is set in favor of the Packers at -5.5, which suggests this should be a close game. If Chicago wants to spring an upset, they would be wise to lean on their running game to control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline.
This methodical approach aligns with Chicago’s playing style through the first five weeks. The Bears have been the most run-heavy offense in the league this year, running the ball on 55% of neutral game situations. They are the only team with a higher run than pass rate in these scenarios.
Highest Neutral Run Rate (2021)
On average, the Bears run a play every 30 seconds, which ranks near the bottom as the 28th-fastest-paced team according to Football Outsiders. The Packers are also among the slowest-paced teams in the league, ranking just two spots ahead at 26th.
Fields hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes in his three starts and has produced under 200 passing yards in two of three games. The only exception was a 209-yard performance against a Lions secondary that measures as a bottom-three unit by several key metrics.
Additional tips: If the number moves, play it down to 197.5.
**Bonus Pick: Ryan Tannehill under long completion
The prop lines haven’t been posted yet for Monday Night Football but once they’re out, keep an eye on Ryan Tannehill’s longest completion prop.
Longest completion prop lines typically fall in the 35.5 to 39.5 range.
Ryan Tannehill has completed just two throws of 30+ yards this season, while the Bills have allowed just two on defense.
The Titans rank second-last in deep ball rate (8%), while teams continue to funnel their throws underneath against the Bills (just 3% of passes against have traveled 20+ yards in the air).
Bet Tannehill’s under long completion as low as 34.5 yards.