We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 7 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JARED GOFF INTERCEPTIONS IN WEEK 7
- Familiarity (Sean McVay)
- Goff under pressure
- Playing from behind
The winless Lions travel to take on the 5-1 Rams in an intriguing matchup of veteran QBs who recently swapped uniforms.
- 0.5 interceptions on BetMGM (-135)
Sean McVay was on the sidelines for 63 Jared Goff games over the past four seasons. Widely considered one of the sharpest head coaches in the league, McVay should be able to scheme up a game plan to exploit Jared Goff’s weaknesses.
The numbers indicate that pressure is a surefire way to get Goff off his rhythm. He’s thrown 19 interceptions under pressure dating back to 2019, tying him for the most in the league over that span.
Most Interceptions Thrown Under Pressure (2019-2021)
Generating pressure is a specialty of the Rams defense. Aaron Donald (29) and Leonard Floyd (27) are both among the league leaders in pressures, ranking fourth and sixth, respectively.
As a team, Los Angeles is tied for the second-highest pressure rate (37%), helping them achieve the second-most Pass Rush Points Saved and sixth-most Pass Coverage Points Saved.
The Lions are 15.5-point underdogs which means they’ll need to attempt a ton of passes if they want to stay in this game or (more likely) need to play catch-up.
Additional tips: This is an attractive bet given the matchup and the fact Goff has thrown an INT in four-of-six games this season. Roll the dice on this prop even if it were to move considerably; we recommend it as far as -155.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JUSTIN FIELDS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 7
- Bucs defense
- Bucs defense
- Bucs defense
The rundown above is no mistake, the Buccaneers defense is the basis for this bet. Last week we hit on the under for Fields passing yards, but this week the stars are aligned for the over when the Bears travel to Tampa Bay.
- 218.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
It’s true that the Bears are the most run-heavy offense in the league and Justin Fields has failed to throw for more than 210 yards in any of his four starts. It’s also true that the Bears will have no choice but to air it out if they want a prayer to beat the defending champs as 12.5-point underdogs.
It’s not that the Bucs defense is poor, ranked as the 5th-best unit according to the SIS Total Points metric; it’s that their opponents simply can’t run on them to the point they have abandoned it altogether. While the league average pass rate in neutral situations is around 60%, the rate for Buccaneers opponents is way up at 80%.
Highest Neutral Pass Rate Against (2021)
No opposing offense had thrown for fewer than 275 yards against the Bucs this season until last week when Jalen Hurts laid an egg. It’s not beyond Fields to crumble with the weight of the offense on his shoulders, but chances are he can eclipse the yardage total even with a sub-par performance.
Additional tips: Lock this in as early as possible because it should only go up from here. If it does, bet the number up to 221.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR RYAN TANNEHILL PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 7
- Highest projected total
- Chiefs weak secondary
- Healthy receivers
The Titans will look to establish themselves as legitimate AFC contenders by winning back-to-back games against the Bills and Chiefs. Tennessee will need to bring their A-game on offense to keep up in the highest projected scoring game of the week.
- 250.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-110)
The Titans would be wise to continue feeding Derrick Henry against a Chiefs defense that ranks last in Run Defense Points Saved. BetMGM has set Henry’s rushing prop at 126.5 yards prop which is a testament to his dominance.
This is a crystal clear strength vs weakness matchup that the Chiefs will need to sell out to contain. Doing so should result in plenty of space for Titans receivers to get open against a secondary that has struggled in its own right. Kansas City has not allowed fewer than 261 passing yards in a game and ranks third-last in yards allowed per coverage snap (7.6).
Most Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap (2021)
|TEAM||YARDS PER COVERAGE SNAP|
Speaking of Titans receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are finally on track to be healthy for the first time since Week 3. Brown should be recovered from an illness that bothered him last week and Jones is now two weeks removed from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss several games.
Additional tips: Tannehill should need to air it out as long as the projected game script comes to fruition. If so, 250 passing yards is very attainable and we recommend playing the number up to 252.5.