We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 8 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JAMEIS WINSTON PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 8
- Revenge game
- Bucs defense
- High projected total
The Saints have an opportunity to claw back into the NFC South division race if they can pull off the upset when they host Tampa Bay.
- 246.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-135)
We all know the path Jameis Winston has followed to get here: ousted by the Bucs, sat behind Drew Brees for a year, and now finally has his chance to show the world and his former team he is a legitimate NFL QB.
You can be sure Winston had this game circled on the schedule, getting to host his former team in his new building. It’s only the Saints’ second game at the Superdome after a weather-displaced home Week 1 and four-of-six on the road to open the season.
We’ve frequently featured the Buccaneers defense as a target for QB props and big passing numbers; it’s not because they’re a poor defense, but because their run defense is so stout that opponents have opted to pass against them at a staggering 79% rate in neutral game situations.
Opposing QBs against the Bucs had cleared 275 passing yards in each of the first five weeks, prior to Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields delivering two of the worst passing performances of the season in Weeks 6 and 7.
Highest Neutral Pass Rate Against (2021)
The Saints are also pictured above with the third-highest neutral pass rate against, setting the stage for a pass-heavy, high-scoring affair on Sunday.
New Orleans has shown their preference to win games with their run game and defense. They likely won’t have the luxury to do that against the stifling run defense and high-powered offense the Bucs are bringing to town.
Additional tips: Feel comfortable betting this line up to 248.5; also consider Winston over pass attempts as a strong prop bet once it’s posted.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR JUSTIN FIELDS PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 8
- Justin Fields struggles
- Run-heavy approach
- Slow pace expected
We’ve been back-and-forth on the passing yards prop for Justin Fields over the past few weeks, going 1-1 with our picks, and the under hitting both times.
- 188.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
We backed Fields and the comeback narrative last week against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense, but the Bears were behind by 32 at halftime and the rookie QB played so poorly that the team essentially called off their comeback efforts.
It’s been a major struggle for Fields through his first five career starts; he ranks last among all QBs with a 64.2 Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR), 2.7 Adjusted Net Yards per Att (ANYA), and 65% On-Target Throw Rate.
Lowest Independent Quarterback Rating (2021)
> IQR builds on traditional QB Rating by accounting for factors such as throwaways, dropped passes and dropped INTs
This weekend’s matchup with the 49ers should warrant a run-heavy approach from Chicago. After posting just 184 passing yards against Tampa Bay, the team that opponents pass against at the highest rate, Fields will face San Francisco, the team that falls at the complete opposite end of the “Neutral Pass Rate Against” spectrum. Teams are passing on just 52% of plays in neutral game situations, the lowest rate in the league.
The Bears’ offense claims the league’s lowest neutral pass rate, creating an ideal opportunity for them to pound the rock on Sunday.
Additional tips: This game has an extremely low total at just 39.5. The low total and close spread should allow the Bears to lean on their running game. We like the number as far down as 184.5.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR MIKE WHITE COMPLETIONS IN WEEK 8
- Shaky backup QB
- Slow pace
- Bengals pass defense
Mike White will take the field for his first NFL start in hopes of springing an upset as 10.5-point underdogs.
- 20.5 completions on DraftKings (-130)
White was the Jets’ fifth-round pick in 2018 and has since held a clipboard while six other QBs had a chance to take the field before finally playing his first regular season snap last week.
In his final season at Western Kentucky, White registered an 80% on-target throw rate, which ranked 51st-of-100 QBs with the most attempts.
The Jets showed their lack of confidence by trading for Joe Flacco this week following the Zach Wilson strained PCL diagnosis. Reports are that Flacco won’t join the team until Friday and he may be inactive on Sunday. The Jets are in a dire situation and may be inclined to activate Flacco. If so, he may get into the game before it’s over.
The Bengals are heavy favorites and have shown a preference to run a slow-tempo offense. Cincinnati ranks 31st in pace according to Football Outsiders, and may have the opportunity to cruise from the early stages of this game.
Cincinnati’s defense has been a newfound strength, allowing the fifth-fewest points in the league, while holding their last two opponents to just 11 and 17 points. The Bengals secondary ranks as the fourth-best unit in terms of Passing Success Rate against (40%) and has cracked the top-five in Pass Coverage Points Saved.
Additional tips: This one could get ugly for the Jets on Sunday, who come in averaging the fewest points per game (13.3). Bet this Mike White line down to 19.5 (-115) and keep your eyes out for other props that align with a tough afternoon for the first-time starter, such as under 33.5 longest completion.