We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 9 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 12-9
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR TYROD TAYLOR PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 9
- Dolphins struggling defense
- Taylor played well before injury
Two one-win teams will face off on Sunday with both sides sensing a real opportunity to emerge victorious. BetMGM has set a fairly high total at 46.5 points, indicating it’s the defenses that may be a big culprit behind these team’s poor records.
- 229.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
As we alluded to in the intro, the Dolphins’ defense has been a glaring weakness this season. All of their opponents have gone over the 230 passing yards mark except Buffalo in Week 2, who felt little urgency during their 35-0 blowout win.
Miami is allowing the second-most passing yards per game despite its opponents regularly being able to take their foot off the gas late. One reason is that the Dolphins have allowed 39 explosive passing plays, five more than any other team.
Most Explosive Passing Plays Allowed (2021)
|TEAM||EXPLOSIVE PASS PLAYS ALLOWED|
Tyrod Taylor didn’t play for long before he suffered the hamstring injury that’s held him out since midway through Week 2.
However, in the season opener, Taylor’s efficient passing led the Texans to 37 points and their lone win this season. In doing so, Taylor registered 15.5 Passing Points Earned (an SIS metric that distributes expected points added or lost on each play based on individual contribution). That number was good for the best game of Week 1 and has held on as the ninth-best passing performance of the season.
These two teams will likely leave nothing on the field in pursuit of their elusive second win, so expect both sides to take to the air as early and often as needed.
Additional tips: This is a plus-matchup for Taylor who threw for 291 yards in Week 1 and was on pace for 250 passing yards before getting injured in Week 2. Feel confident playing this number up to 233.5 and consider pairing it with Brandin Cooks over for receiving yards.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR TREVOR LAWRENCE PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 9
- Lawrence struggles under pressure
- Bills stifling defense
After managing just seven points in last week’s loss to Seattle, Jacksonville will be two-touchdown underdogs when they welcome in Buffalo on Sunday.
- 228.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Trevor Lawrence has had a rocky start to his NFL career with just one win to go along with seven double-digit losses through his first eight games.
It won’t get any easier as Jacksonville faces arguably their toughest opponent so far. Buffalo is currently the Super Bowl favorite, and has shown to be a well-balanced team, leading the NFL with a +120 point differential.
The Bills defense has allowed just one opponent to go over 220 passing yards (Patrick Mahomes), and when they squared off with another rookie QB earlier this season, Davis Mills mustered just 87 yards en route to being shut out.
This defense ranks first by a sizable amount in several key categories, allowing just a 58% completion rate, 4.9 yards per coverage snap, and 12 explosive passes. As a result, they’ve allowed 19 fewer points than any other team this season.
Fewest Yards per Coverage Snap Allowed (2021)
|TEAM||YARDS PER COVERAGE SNAP|
Buffalo’s pass rush has generated pressure at the fifth-highest rate (36%). Meanwhile, Lawrence has had the luxury of throwing from a clean pocket on just 63% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
With that combination, it’s safe to expect Lawrence will be under duress frequently throughout Sunday’s game. When faced with pressure, the rookie’s completion percentage has dropped from 67% to 44%.
Additional tips: Take this number down to 225.5 if it were to move. Also, consider wagering on the under for Lawrence’s longest completion when that prop is released (as low as 33.5).
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR LAMAR JACKSON PASSING TOUCHDOWNS IN WEEK 9
- Goal line play-calling
- Vikings red zone defense
Baltimore returns from its bye week after having 14 days to stir over the lopsided defeat to the division-rival Bengals.
- 1.5 passing touchdowns on BetMGM (+110)
Through the first half of the season, Jackson has been playing the MVP-caliber football we saw when he took home the hardware in 2019. He’s having his most efficient season through the air with a career-high 8.6 Yards/Attempt, while continuing to blow past defenders with his legs.
Jackson hasn’t replicated his MVP season in the passing touchdowns category. After throwing 36 TDs in 2019, his total dropped to 26 last season, and has posted just 10 so far this campaign.
Baltimore ranks top-10 in points per game but their play calls during trips down near the goal line have been skewed toward the ground game. The Ravens have been the most run-heavy team inside-the-10 this season. Jackson himself has nine dropbacks to go along with six rushing attempts, and the team overall has 18 carries inside-the-10.
Highest Run Rate Inside-the-10 (2021)
Jackson has only thrown for multiple touchdowns in one game this season, while tallying one passing touchdown in each of the other six games.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has done well to limit opposing passing touchdowns, ranking tied for second-fewest with just nine allowed. Last week was the first time the Vikings allowed multiple passing touchdowns since Week 2.
Additional tips: We like this bet at plus-odds but would be willing to take it as far as -110. BetMGM does expect the Ravens to put up points here, assigning them a 27.5-point team total. Realize that the Ravens have scored 30+ points in four games this season but Jackson has multiple passing TDs in just one of them.