We’re back looking for redemption after a hectic Week 2 where our QB prop recommendations went 0-3 after a flawless 3-0 start in Week 1. This week, we’re shifting our focus to running backs with three props to consider for this weekend’s slate.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR AARON JONES RUSHING YARDS IN WEEK 3
- Historical difficulties
- San Francisco’s run defense
- Schematic familiarity
This rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship game has one of the higher point totals this week (50) and figures to be yet another clash of styles between the Packers passing game and the 49ers run-heavy attack.
- 54.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-110)
Jones put on quite the show against the Lions last week, racking up 115 all-purpose yards and 4 total touchdowns. But, the front he’s facing this week has multiple former first-rounders along the defensive line and isn’t actively shopping any of their linebackers.
In fact, the 49ers had one of the best run defenses in 2020, ranking 4th in yards per attempt allowed in non-garbage time.
|Defense||Yards Per Carry Allowed, 2020|
Furthermore, Green Bay has played San Francisco three times the past two seasons and Jones has produced rushing yardage totals of 58, 56, and 38 in those games. And barring 2020’s contest—for which Jimmy Garoppolo was injured—the Packers have been forced into some passing situations that weren’t conducive to producing rushing milestones.
Fade San Francisco’s 2021 struggles against the weird rushing designs of Detroit and Philadelphia. Green Bay’s running game is more straightforward and there’s Shanahan coaching tree familiarity at play here. Buy into that and positive regression for a talented front.
Additional tips: The spread feels a little precarious here, but there might be value in Packers and Over 39.5 Total Points (+220).
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER ON ALVIN KAMARA RUSHING YARDS IN WEEK 3
- Favorable matchup
- High rushing attempts line
- Neutral game script rushing tendency
In the past, Patriots-Saints would have been a surefire playoff preview and must-watch TV. But, a lot has changed in the past year and these two once-proud franchises took steps this offseason to move on from their old quarterbacks. This game has the second-lowest points total this week (42) and the spread is fairly close.
- 58.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-115)
Kamara performed uncharacteristically poorly against the Panthers last week, rushing for a measly 5 yards on just eight attempts. Running wasn’t an option for much of the game, as a league-leading 72% of the Saints’ offensive plays counted as garbage time, but 0.6 YPC is never good.
That said, the spread indicates that this is going to be a close game and the Saints ranked ninth in run rate (43%) in one-score games last year. That tracks well with the line on Kamara’s attempts (15.5).
Kamara is going to get opportunities this game and it’s hard to see him struggling again like he did against the Panthers. This is a get-right game for him and the books know he’s going to get touches. The Patriots ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed on non-garbage time runs last season, and the return of Dont’a Hightower has yet to produce results, as they just ceded 152 rushing yards to the Jets.
Additional tips: Money has started to come in on the Saints spread and has driven it down half a point from opening. The Patriots may become a value if it moves any further.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER ON DEVIN SINGLETARY RUSHING YARDS IN WEEK 3
- Tackle-breakers are yardage-makers
- Josh Allen struggling early
- Buffalo heavily favored
The Bills were certainly a pass-first team last year, ranking third in passing rate in one-score situations (67%). However, they’re favored by a full seven points this game and they may be in a position to ice a win with their ground attack.
- 49.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-110)
It’s probably a little early to cry regression for Josh Allen, but he’s struggled to begin the year. He’s turned in two straight sub-60% completion games and currently ranks 25th in passing EPA. Meanwhile, Singletary has turned in two strong performances and is averaging over 6 YPC on the year so far.
While that average feels unsustainable, Buffalo may opt to go with the hot hand and feed Singletary, who ranked 4th in broken and missed tackles per attempt (14.4%) among running backs with 100+ carries in 2020.
Additional tips: Josh Allen is a scrambler at heart and is facing a quality pass rush this week. You should feel comfortable taking over 37.5 rushing yards at -110 or even -115.