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The Pittsburgh Steelers have managed to dodge a losing record, narrowly the past few seasons, for the entirety of Mike Tomlin’s 17-year tenure.

Their success can be greatly attributed to this simple statistic: The Steelers went 9-2 in one-score games last year, the best in the NFL.

The Steelers are 34-11 in one-score games since 2020, best in the NFL by FAR.

To win so many close games, you need GREAT performance late in games. That’s bad news for the Steelers this year.

Here’s why:

Russell Wilson and Justin Fields both possess their own strengths, but the question remains: Will they fit Pittsburgh’s playstyle when it comes to late-game urgency?

It will be interesting to see if Tomlin can avoid his first losing season as an NFL head coach despite this quarterback question mark.

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Steelers Over/Under Wins, 2024:

The Steelers are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.

Why You Should Bet the Over: Steelers Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Over:

The Steelers offense finished 22nd in yards per play (5.0) and 28th in points per drive (1.48) last season.

They scored 149 points in the first half of games, 28th in the league.

Their entire offseason was built around improving the offense with two new quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) and a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith).

Even a league average offense paired with Pittsburgh’s defense could be enough for a great season.

#2 Reason to Bet Over:

Speaking of that defense, they finished ninth in points per drive allowed (1.71), 11th in pressure rate (37.7%), and eighth in takeaways (27).

They are ninth in defensive EPA per play over the last three seasons.

This has consistently been a strong unit, and they arguably got better this offseason.

» Bet the Steelers Win Total Over 

Why You Should Bet the Under: Steelers Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Under:

The Steelers were a superb fourth-quarter team last season, outsourcing opponents by 29 points, the fifth-best rate in the NFL.

The team won four games that they trailed entering the fourth quarter, ranking first in the league.

That was the ninth-highest total since 2019.

Those types of late-game performances are not particularly stable and could regress this season.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under:

Likely starter Russell Wilson should be an upgrade on what the Steelers got out of their quarterbacks last season, but he also was not good in 2023 despite being on the right side of touchdown variance.

As has become the norm, he held the ball too long looking for big plays and was often forced to settle for checkdowns.

Among qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson was second (to Justin Fields) in the percentage of his attempts with more than three seconds before the throw.

He was also second in the percentage of his attempts that were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage and third (just behind Fields) in his percentage of deep targets, illustrating the boom-or-bust nature of his game.

» Bet the Steelers Win Total Under 

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