While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
Kicking things off, we are diving into what is available for Patrick Mahomes.
Passing Yards: Over (-112) /Under (-112) 325.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 33.9%
Mahomes has hit this yardage total at a one-third clip for his career. He hit this passing over at a higher rate this season, in 7-of-17 games with a season-high 462 passing yards coming against the Bucs in his Week 12 matchup. Five quarterbacks hit this mark against Tampa Bay this season with all five coming over their final nine games of the season.
Touchdown Passes: Over (+185)/Under (-240) 3.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 22.6%
Over (-155)/Under (+125) 2.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 47.2%
Mahomes has thrown four or more touchdown passes in nearly a quarter of his career games, but this one is one of the longer plays on the board and the juice reflects that. He threw four or more touchdown passes in three games this season while just one quarterback (Drew Brees in Week 9) threw four touchdown passes against Tampa Bay this season. Mahomes threw three himself back in Week 12 to go along with three or more passing scores in six other games this season while Tampa Bay allowed three or more passing scores in 6-of-19 games this season.
Passing Attempts: Over (-125)/Under (+101) 40.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 32.1%
This is one of my favorite Mahomes overs in play if the weather is of no concern come kickoff (reports now indicate that might not be the case). Mahomes hit this over in 9-of-17 games this season, including Week 12 against Tampa Bay when he threw a season-high 49 passes. Over his past 10 games played, Mahomes is averaging 41.4 pass attempts per game while hitting 41 attempts in six of those contests. His lowest total in a full game over that span is 34 against Miami in Week 14.
Tampa Bay’s elite run defense forced teams to play one-dimensional this season, facing a league-high 65.4% pass rate. They faced 39.2 pass attempts per game, which was the second-most in the league. Opposing passers hit this mark against Tampa Bay in 50% of the games this season while the Chiefs threw the ball 72.2% of their offensive snaps against Tampa Bay in Week 12, their second-highest rate in a game this season.
Passing Completions: Over (+100)/Under (-124) 28.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 18.9%
Mahomes’s career marks are light on reaching 29 pass completions, but he did reach that mark in six games this season, including a season-high 37 completions against the Bucs in Week 12. He has averaged 28.1 completions per game over his past 10 games played.
Tampa Bay has allowed 26.6 pass completions per game (31st). Opponents completed 29 or more passes against them in eight games this season, but five of those times have come over their past nine games played. One way to play this is taking the positive juice on the completions going over instead of laying anything on the pass attempts, but if the weather holds up, I anticipate this being an extremely pass-heavy game from the Chiefs.
Completion Percentage: Over (+118)/Under (-148) 70.5%
Career Games Over Hit%: 37.7%
Mahomes had a career-high 66.3% completion percentage this season, but he was even better than that on a per game basis as he hit 70% of his passes in nine games this season. That includes connecting on 75.5% of his passes against Tampa Bay in Week 12.
The Bucs allowed a 67.9% completion rate this season (25th), but were modest in allowing a completion rate this high in seven games this season and none since Mahomes hit this mark in Week 12.
One area for concern with this line is the state of the Chiefs’ offensive line. While facing no pressure this season, Mahomes has completed 74.9% of his passes. Under pressure, that mark is 48.5%.
In Week 12, Tampa Bay did pressure Mahomes on 34% of his dropbacks. Under pressure, Mahomes was 7-of-15 (46.7%). When kept clean, he was 30-of-34 (88.2%).
Mahomes was only sacked twice in that Week 12 game, but of the 20 pressures their offensive allowed, Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie accounted for 11 of them. After losing left tackle Eric Fisher to a torn Achilles in the AFC Title Game, the Chiefs will enter the Super Bowl with center Austin Reiter as their only remaining starter from Week 1 on the offensive line. Remmers — who played right tackle when these teams played in Week 12 — will slide to left tackle in place of Fisher while Wylie will move over to right tackle on Sunday.
Rushing Yards: Over (-134)/Under (+107) 19.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 41.5%
The biggest factor here will be what kind of impact Mahomes’s toe injury will have on Sunday. In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes had five rushing yards and zero scramble yards, his fewest in a game on both fronts since Week 9. When these teams played in Week 12, Mahomes added 28 rushing yards, 16 on designed runs and 12 on scrambles, adding three first downs on those rushes.
Tampa Bay allowed 16.4 yards per game rushing to opposing passers (12th) with 20 or more rushing yards allowed to Daniel Jones (20), Kirk Cousins (41), Taylor Heinicke (46), and Taysom Hill (54) outside of the 28 yards allowed to Mahomes in Week 12. If Mahomes’s toe checks out fine, then the state of his offensive line may force him to scramble more while healthy, Mahomes has hit this mark this season in over half of his games.