While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We took a look at the lines and numbers for Patrick Mahomes earlier, so now we are taking a look at his counterpart in Tom Brady.
Passing Yards: Over (-112) /Under (-112) 295.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 36.4%
2020 %: 47.4%
Brady hit this line in nine games this season, but has gotten here in six of his past 10 games, including a 345-yard performance against Kansas City in Week 12. Down 17-0 after the first quarter helped as Tampa Bay had a 32-9 pass-to-run rate the final three quarters of the game. The Chiefs allowed an opposing passer to hit this line in 7-of-18 games (38.9%) this season with five of those coming over their final 10 games of the season.
Touchdown Passes: Over (+125)/Under (-157) 2.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 30.6%
2020 %: 42.1%
Over (-230)/Under (+180) 1.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 61.9%
2020 %: 84.2%
Brady is a sound bet to throw multiple touchdown passes as he did so in 16-of-19 games this season, including 10 in a row dating back to the regular season. Kansas City allowed multiple touchdown passes in 11 games this season. In the Super Bowl, Brady has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in six of his nine appearances. The only issue taking the line that low is that you will have to pay for it.
Brady did throw three or more touchdown passes in eight games this season, including Week 12 against the Chiefs. That was one of just five games in which the Chiefs allowed three or more touchdown passes against them this season in 18 games played.
Passing Attempts: Over (-112)/Under (-112) 39.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 31.2%
2020 %: 50%
You are getting 50/50 odds here based on Brady’s 2020 output. Despite forcing teams to score points, the Chiefs faced 40 or more pass attempts in just five of their 18 games, with Brady throwing 41 times himself against them in Week 12. As noted, the scoreboard was a huge factor there as the Bucs had a 32-9 pass-to-run rate during the final three quarters of the game. If Tampa Bay is able to stay in a neutral game script, we should see them run the ball more often, but you should bet this line based on how you believe the game script will play out.
When the Buccaneers trailed by seven or more points this season, they threw the ball at a league-high 74% rate (242 of their attempts). At fewer than seven points, that mark dipped to 58% (eighth), 56% when tied or ahead (seventh).
Passing Completions: Over (-112)/Under (-112) 24.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 38.2%
2020 %: 42.1%
Brady has completed 22, 18, and 20 passes in the three postseason games this year while he has connected on 25 or more passes in just two of his past seven games. Brady did hit 27 completions when these teams played earlier in the season, but as mentioned above, that went along with volume aided by a huge deficit early in the game.
The Chiefs have allowed 22.2 completions per game this season (12th) with opposing passers hitting this line in 5-of-18 games. Just once this season has an opponent cleared 28 completed passes against Kansas City. There is even value on both sides, but with Brady getting there under extreme game conditions last go around, the under carries more probability.
Completion Percentage: Over (-150)/Under (+120) 62.5%
Career Games Over Hit%: 56.5%
2020 %: 68.4%
In his three postseason starts, Brady has completed just 55.0%, 54.5%, and 55.6% of his passes. During the regular season, he had just one game (Week 11 versus the Rams) with a lower completion rate than any of these past three games. Even with these past three performances factored in, Brady hit this completion rate in 13-of-19 games this season, including Week 12 against the Chiefs (65.9%).
Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in completion rate allowed this year, with a mark is still right at this line at 62.3%. On a per-game basis, opposing passers completed 62.5% of their passes in eight games, with just two coming over the seven games since these teams last met.
Rushing Yards: Over (+140)/Under (-177) 0.5
Career Games Over Hit%: 54.2%
2020 %: 26.3%
One rushing yard. That is all you need to make it here. Brady has had at least one yard on the ground in over half of his career games, but in his age-43 season, Brady found his way to a full yard on the ground just five times. Four of those games came via a 1-yard quarterback sneak for a touchdown. The under here is not worth playing, but if playing for that one yard, you will need an environment for a quarterback sneak and for the Bucs not to win the game for kneel-downs to come into play. Brady’s longest run on the season was just four yards.
